MOSUL BATTLE BEGINS: After months of preparation, and weeks of hinting the liberation of Mosul was imminent, Iraqi ground forces began their assault on the Islamic State’s de facto capital in northern Iraq Monday morning local time. Tens of thousands of troops, trained and armed by the U.S. and its coalition partners, are carrying out a methodical plan that began with isolating the city of 1 million, cutting off its supply lines, and now launching the final phase. That phase promises to be deadly, dangerous urban combat, with Iraqi troops moving from the south, and Peshmerga fighters coming in from the north and east. The U.S.-backed coalition is providing air cover, along with intelligence, surveillance imagery, and military advice. How long the battle last depends almost entirely on how hard the vastly outnumbered 3,500 to 5,000 ISIS terrorists believed to be in Mosul fight. “We can’t predict how long it will take for the Iraqi Security Forces to defeat Da’esh in Mosul; but we know they will succeed — just as they did in Bayji, in Ramadi, in Fallujah and, more recently in Qayyarah and Sharqat,” said Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of the U.S.-led coalition. You can see his statement on video here.
After Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced the beginning of the offensive in a television address, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter issued a statement calling the battle for Mosul, “a decisive moment in the campaign to deliver ISIL a lasting defeat,” and expressed confidence “our Iraqi partners will prevail against our common enemy and free Mosul and the rest of Iraq from ISIL’s hatred and brutality.”
WHAT NEXT IN IRAQ? Former Army Vice Chief Gen. Jack Keane, a key behind-the-scene advocate of “the surge” that helped turned the tide in Iraq in 2007, says the big question about the Mosul campaign is what happens after ISIS is defeated, and sectarian divisions surface again. Writing in the Cipher Brief, Keane says, “Once Mosul is taken, these political divisions in Iraq are going to rise in importance, and will challenge the effectiveness of the Iraqi government going forward.” The retired four-star also says his advice to bring back the team that oversaw the surge has been largely ignored. “A number of us have suggested, for over two years now, that it would be in the U.S. interest to return retired General David Petraeus and former Ambassador Ryan Crocker, both of whom helped to achieve this unity in 2007, to Baghdad to personally represent our President and try to regain that political unity,” Keane writes. “But this has not happened. Not only that, but Secretary of State John Kerry rarely ever goes to Iraq. Instead, he spends most of his time talking to the Russians [about Syria] and not accomplishing much of anything in doing so.”
Petraeus, meanwhile, also says the U.S. should be focusing on life after Mosul, Rudy Takala writes. “The outcome is not in question. The question is what happens afterward,” Petraeus said in an interview on ABC News. “There are a lot of grievances. There are Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, Turkmen, there are Kurds from three different political parties, Yazidis, Christians, Shabak, [with] a lot of grievances, scores that may be settled. In that kind of complexity, governance is going to have to emerge.”
A HIGHLY SYMBOLIC VICTORY IN SYRIA: In the end there was no resistance as Free Syrian Army soldiers, backed by Turkey forces and U.S. airstrikes, took over the Syrian village of Dabiq this weekend. Islamic State fighters fled in the face of the advancing troops, a humiliation that takes on an outsized significance because of the belief by some muslims that Dabiq would be the site of an epic battle between Muslims and Christians.
Dabiq, you will recall, was the name of the Islamic State’s glossy propaganda magazine. But instead of an apocalyptic showdown, the 100 or so ISIS forces hit the road out of town. Carter noted that, coming on the eve of the Mosul operation, the liberation of Dabiq was more than just the latest military victory against the Islamic State. “The group carried out unspeakable atrocities in Dabiq, named its English-language magazine after the town and claimed it would be the site of a final victory for the so-called caliphate,” Carer said. “Instead its liberation gives the campaign to deliver ISIL a lasting defeat new momentum in Syria.”
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USE IT OR LOSE IT: Pentagon investment outlays were up 2 percent during the quarter that ended Sept. 30 compared to the same time period last year, according to a report out this weekend from Byron Callan at Capital Alpha Partners. The operations and maintenance accounts saw a 13 percent jump, more than analysts would have expected. Callan wrote that it could be attributed to the end of fiscal year “use it or lose it” mentality and mostly came in accounts for the Army and defense-wide.
FAILED N. KOREA LAUNCH: U.S. Strategic Command said its systems detected a failed North Korean ballistic missile launch on Saturday, Kelly Cohen writes. The launch occurred Saturday night near the northwestern city of Kusong, the Pentagon said. “We strongly condemn this and North Korea’s other recent missile tests, which violate UN Security Council resolutions explicitly prohibiting North Korea’s launches using ballistic missile technology,” Pentagon spokesman Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross said in a statement. The failure is not necessarily a setback. As any weapons-tester will tell you, when you are developing a new system, a failure can often teach you as much as a success. The test appeared to be of an intermediate range Musudan ballistic missile.
IN HER OWN WORDS: Three years ago, Hillary Clinton was paid $675,000 for three off-the-record Q-and-A sessions with the global investment banking company Goldman Sachs. Clinton refused to release transcripts of the off-the-record sessions, but we have three of them for you, in their entirety, courtesy of WikiLeaks. If you want to judge for yourself if Clinton was cozying up to Wall Street, the transcripts are there for your perusal. You can read Clinton’s discussion of why she did not prevail in her argument to arm rebels in Syria, her analysis of North Korea’s unpredictable leader Kim Jong-un, and her views on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ultimate ambitions, and what it’s like to fly commercial after being in government for 30 years. Remember, this was three years ago, so you can weigh Clinton’s predictions with how it all turned out. It’s in the second of the three sessions that Clinton makes a pitch for Wall Street money. “There are a lot of people here who should ask some tough questions before handing over campaign contributions to people who were really playing chicken with our whole economy,” she says.
DENIAL OF SERVICE: The Associated Press is reporting this morning that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange‘s Internet access has been cut by “an unidentified state actor.” Assange has been up holed up at the Ecuadorean Embassy in London for more than four years to avoid extradition over allegations of sexual assault. Few details are available, so it’s hard to say if this is a big deal, or just one of those blips. Stay tuned.
HARSH WORDS OVER HACKING: Putin rebuked Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday in response to a recent interview in which Biden promised the U.S. would send a “message” to Russia for allegedly meddling in the 2016 presidential election with cyberattacks. Daniel Chaitin has the story. “We have the capacity to do it,” Biden said on “Meet the Press” on Sunday, “and the message will be sent. He’ll know it, and it will be at the time of our choosing and under the circumstances that have the greatest impact.” Putin said Biden’s comments are meant to be a distraction to deflect attention from the economic problems affecting the U.S. He also said that during the election season, U.S.-Russian relations take a hit as they are leveraged in order to gain political sway. “One can expect just about anything from our American friends,” Putin said, according to RT.
But an unexpected voice is urging the administration to continue, Gabby Morrongiello reports. Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence encouraged the Obama administration on Sunday to follow through on its threat to launch an unprecedented cyberstrike on Russia, which U.S. intelligence officials have blamed for hacking and disclosing emails in order to interfere with the current presidential election. “I think there’s no question that evidence continues to point in that direction and we should follow it where it leads,” Pence said. “There should be severe consequences to Russia or to any sovereign nation that is compromising the privacy or the security of the United States of America.”
TRUMP WORKING FOR PUTIN? Donald Trump is almost certainly working on behalf of Putin, claimed three former high-ranking members of the U.S. government who serve now as surrogates for Hillary Clinton, T. Becket Adams writes.
The jury is still out on whether Trump even knows he’s doing it, they added. Former CIA deputy Director Michael Morell told reporters Friday that it’s telling that Trump refuses to connect Moscow to WikiLeaks’ recent hacking of the Democratic National Committee and its alleged hack of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta. Matt Olsen, the former head of the National Counterterrorism Center and James Rubin, the former U.S. assistant secretary of state for public affairs under Bill Clinton, made similar cases.
SOLUTION TO INDIA-PAKISTAN HOSTILITIES? Trump said he is open to mediating negotiations between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-capable countries that have a long-standing hostile relationship with each other, Daniel Chaitin reports. “Well, I would love to see Pakistan and India get along, because that’s a very, very hot tinderbox … That would be a very great thing. I hope they can do it,” Trump told the Hindustan Times this weekend, before appearing at a Republican Hindu Coalition event Saturday evening in New Jersey.
CONFUSION IN RED SEA: Saturday saw some tense moments, when the USS Mason believed it was again being targeted by anti-ship cruise missiles from Yemen. The guided-missile destroyer fired off it defenses, but afterward the Pentagon wasn’t sure the threat was real. The last we heard, it was still assessing. If there was another attack on U.S. ships in international waters, you can expect a retaliatory strike.
USS ZUMWALT COMMISSIONED: Over the weekend in Baltimore, the U.S. Navy commissioned the lead ship of its three-ship class of next-generation multimission destroyers, the USS Zumwalt. The ship is a radical departure from the destroyers we all know and love. The ship is named for Adm. Elmo R. “Bud” Zumwalt, chief of naval operations from 1970 to 1974, and a veteran of World War II, Korea and Vietnam. If you missed our short video on the Zumwalt ahead of the commissioning, check it out here.
ICYMI: CARTER’S FUNNY SIDE: If you missed Carter’s comedy schtick with late night funnyman Seth Meyers Friday, it’s worth checking out. The segment shows an aptitude for sketch comedy that is not apparent from Carter’s sometimes halting testimony before congressional committees. Plus, you get a preview of his official portrait.
THE RUNDOWN
Breaking Defense: Raytheon’s OCX, As Expected, Gets OSD Nod
Defense News: DIUx Offers $36 million in FY16 Contracts
UPI: Sikorsky delivers 1,000th U.S. Army H-60M Black Hawk
Breaking Defense: F-35 Insulation Fix: All Air Force Planes Flying By End Of Year
Politico: McCain’s reelection pivot: Bringing home the bucks
Military.com: Russian FM has no ‘Special Expectations’ for Syria Talks
UPI: GenDyn gets $125 million U.S. Coast Guard Rescue 21 contract
Military.com: Navy Personnel Chief to Sailors: You Have a Voice in Ratings Overhaul
Marine Corps Times: Marines’ requirements for infantry officers are unrealistic, Army colonel says
Air Force Times: Air Force releases guidance on transgender airmen
Washington Post: Band-Aid on a bullet wound’: What America’s new war looks like in Afghanistan’s most violent province
Defense One: War Goes Viral
Military Times: There’s a new push to counter the rise of ISIS in Southeast Asia
CNN: ISIS regional leader killed in Turkey, report says
Army Times: Army announces Iraq deployment for 500 soldiers
Reuters: Wheels of justice barely turn at Guantanamo prison
New York Times: In Somalia, U.S. Escalates a Shadow War
Calendar
MONDAY | OCTOBER 17
10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, talks about his new book, Ike’s Gamble: America’s Rise to Dominance in the Middle East. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Officials will talk about remaining priorities for the U.S. while it holds rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council. atlanticcouncil.org
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 18
8 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Retired Gen. Michael Hayden, the former head of the CIA, speaks at the start of a morning event on cyber security challenges for the next administration. heritage.org
8:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Think tank experts discuss how the Pentagon can develop alternative defense strategies. csbaonline.org
8:30 a.m. Albuquerque, NM. CSIS hosts the second of a two-part Project on Nuclear Issues conference. All speakers and presentations are off-the-record. csis.org
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. NSA Deputy National Manager for National Security Systems Curt Dukes gives an update on the U.S. cyber defenses. aei.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former service leaders discuss how to use public-private partnerships to invest in defense infrastructure. csis.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Adm. Kurt Tidd, the commander of U.S. Southern Command, talks about maritime security. csis.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. and Mexican military officials, as well as think tank analysts, discuss the evolving military relationship between the U.S. and Mexico. wilsoncenter.org
12 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Former B-2 bomber pilots speak about the importance of long-range strike capabilities on the 15th anniversary of the longest bombing run. mitchellaerospacepower.org
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 19
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council presents its new paper on a 10-year plan for U.S.-Iran relations. atlanticcouncil.org
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, the former deputy supreme allied commander for Europe, talks about whether armed conflict with Russia is a real possibility. brookings.edu
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts talks about the cybersecurity threats facing the upcoming presidential election. atlanticcouncil.org
MONDAY | OCTOBER 24
9 a.m. Willard Intercontinental Hotel. Army Secretary Eric Fanning, Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James and Navy Secretary Ray Mabus talk about the transition to the next administration. cnas.org
