Republicans are going to have to find a way to compensate for a major disadvantage in resources if they hope to put a dent in the Democratic majority in the House after Democrats entered September with $36 million more to spend on the fall campaign than the GOP.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $22.6 million in August and closed the month with a $104.7 million war chest. Comparatively, the National Republican Congressional Committee raised $17.4 million to finish the period with $68.9 million in cash on hand. The DCCC has consistently out-raised the NRCC this election cycle, positioning House Democrats to hold their 16-seat majority unless the political environment takes a turn in the GOP’s favor.
Republicans flipped control of the House in 2010 despite the fact that the NRCC was significantly out-raised by the DCCC over the two-year cycle. But generic-ballot polls show that voters prefer Democrats in charge of Congress by a margin of 6 percentage points, and Democratic incumbents in competitive races have generally out-raised Republican challengers last year and this year.
Those two data points suggest Democrats will keep control of the speaker’s gavel. But with six weeks to go until Election Day, there is still a bit of time for Republicans to turn things around, depending on the outcome of the race for the White House, in which President Trump is behind but within striking distance of Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the party’s Senate campaign arm, raised $26.9 million in August, besting the National Republican Senatorial Committee, though the NRSC’s $19.1 million haul bested all previous Augusts in a midterm or presidential election. The DSCC reported a staggering $41 million in cash on hand at the end of August, compared with just $13.6 million for the NRSC.
The battle for Senate control, a three-seat race, was roiled over the weekend after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died at the age of 87 and after Trump and Senate Republicans pledged to confirm her successor despite the opening coming so close to Election Day.
The issue could thwart Democratic prospects of winning back the Senate by shoring up support for vulnerable Republicans in traditionally red states. However, the issue has sent fundraising by individual Democratic challengers skyrocketing since Friday night, providing them with more ammunition to use against GOP incumbents.