PAINESVILLE, Ohio — Republican J.D. Vance is conceding that polls showing him in a dogfight with Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) for an open Ohio Senate seat are accurate, telling grassroots supporters he has to “close the deal” with moderate, center-right voters.
Vance, 38, has struggled to outpace Ryan since winning the Republican Senate nomination in May, a victory fueled by an endorsement from former President Donald Trump — despite a favorable political atmosphere and Ohio’s status as a quasi-red state. Rather than downplay those challenges, Vance told a gathering of Republican voters Thursday morning that his campaign has more work to do with conservative-minded voters ahead of the fast-approaching midterm elections.
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“I think that we’re ahead — not comfortably, but we’re ahead,” Vance told about 40 grassroots Republicans who gathered at the Lake County GOP headquarters in Painesville, Ohio, roughly 30 miles northeast of Cleveland, to meet the bestselling author of Hillbilly Elegy and former venture capitalist.
“What we see is 10% of the electorate — they’re moderate to kind of center-right voters, they’re pretty conservative, especially on crime issues, especially on immigration issues,” Vance said. “We’ve just got to close the deal with them.”
Vance had a 0.8-percentage-point lead over Ryan in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls amid a major investment in the contest by the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) that poured $28 million into Ohio to pull Vance across the finish line. Vance raised $6.9 million in the third quarter, a vast improvement over his fundraising in April, May, and June, closing the period with a $3.3 million war chest.
Ryan raked far more in July, August, and September ($17.2 million) but entered October with just $1.5 million in cash on hand to spend on his campaign.
In providing his assessment of the state of the race with 26 days to go during remarks to the grassroots Republicans who filed into the Lake County GOP headquarters on Thursday, Vance went into some detail, sounding almost like a pundit — or a strategist. And he was candid.
Vance highlighted the differences between his position versus Ryan and that of Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH), who leads his Democratic challenger, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, 54.2% to 36.5%. (Acknowledging there were reporters present, Vance said he would offer the “unfiltered truth” anyway: “I know these guys are going to report on every stupid thing that I say.”)
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“About 10% of the electorate, 10% of people in the state of Ohio, have not decided who they’re going to vote for in the Senate race,” Vance said. “This is one of the big differences between the Senate race and the governor’s race. Pretty much everybody seems to have made their mind up about the governor’s race.”
