The New Hampshire Republican primary is over, and Donald Trump has scored a major victory. Here are three thoughts on the results:
Second place
Ohio Gov. John Kasich won the race for second place, gaining momentum and a cycle of positive news coverage. Kasich’s second-place finish is just as noteworthy as Trump’s victory, since that was largely expected. Kasich was polling behind Marco Rubio in the four-man race for second place, but emerged solidly ahead of the pack to grab the runner-up spot by a few percentage points.
Is this the beginning of Kasich-mentum? It worked for Rubio after he surged to a strong third-place finish in Iowa. Rubio picked up nine congressional endorsements between Iowa and New Hampshire, but he was expected to do well in New Hampshire. Kasich doesn’t seem to have much promise in the early primary states outside of New Hampshire. Also, will Rubio’s growing establishment support slow after he finished a disappointing fifth place, barely breaking 10 percent?
Trump’s victory
For those who have been watching the polls, Trump’s victory is no surprise at all. The final poll average predicted Trump would win by 17 percentage points. He appears set to win by roughly that margin. For the sake of momentum, it’s important that Trump slightly beat expectations. For example, Hillary Clinton won Iowa, but the margin was so close that it was largely seen as negative news for Clinton.
Trump’s victory was reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s 2012 victory. Romney led every single poll taken in New Hampshire that cycle. He went on to win in a landslide, by more than 16 percentage points. Keep in mind, no GOP candidate has ever become the nominee in the modern primary era unless he won in Iowa or New Hampshire. Then again, this race is more wide open than most.
South Carolina
The South Carolina GOP primary is 11 days away, on Saturday, Feb. 20. It’s anyone’s guess what will happen. There hasn’t been a single poll released on South Carolina since January, a week before the Iowa caucuses. Historically, the results from Iowa and New Hampshire give certain candidates momentum going into South Carolina. Additionally, a number of candidates have dropped out of the race.
An average of the last few South Carolina polls shows Trump in the lead there by more than 16 percentage points, followed by Ted Cruz, Rubio and Jeb Bush. When polls start rolling in from South Carolina over the next few days, what will they say? Will Trump’s lead grow? Or will the establishment coalesce behind Rubio or Bush?
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
