Donald Trump supporters are in denial about their candidate’s chances in November, and they are cherry-picking history to make excuses for a failing campaign.
When shown the slew of polling from numerous news organizations and educational institutions showing Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by double-digits, Trump supports shrug and say one of two things (or both):
#1. Hillary Clinton is going to jail, so we can beat her.
#2. Ronald Reagan was losing big to Jimmy Carter early in 1980. He came back, so can Trump.
First, banking on Clinton to be in jail is spacious for two reasons. The chances of the Obama administration prosecuting her are small to non-existent. But, the worst case scenario is if Clinton is prosecuted.
Democrats aren’t politically suicidal. The DNC will force her out of the race, and that means either Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden will be the nominee — and both poll much better against Republicans than Clinton. Sanders is beating Trump by 17.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average.
Republicans want Clinton to be the nominee. Her approval ratings among young voters and other swing demographics are terrible. The other major candidate with lower ratings is… Donald Trump.
RELATED: Poll: 67% of millennials dislike Clinton, 75% dislike Trump — 35% may vote 3rd Party
Which leads us to the second point. Donald Trump isn’t Ronald Reagan, and this election is nothing like 1980.
Early in 1980, the nation was rallying behind its president because of the Iran hostage crisis; that support eroded when Carter failed to resolve it. By the beginning of April in 1980, even before he wrapped up the nomination, Reagan began to quickly close the polling gap between him and President Carter.
The exact opposite is happening to Trump — the gap is only growing wider.
Reagan shrunk the gap as he ran his campaign; the more Trump campaigns, the more his general election polls fall. Once Reagan started to beat Carter in May of 1980, the poll average never recovered for Carter, and Reagan won in a landslide.
The other major difference between Reagan and Trump?
Unlike Donald Trump, Reagan never had 70 percent disapproval ratings among women and young Americans.
In fact, Reagan won a large majority of women voters and young voters.
Yet, poll after poll demonstrate a stark disliking of Trump among these key demographics. 35 percent of young Americans say they’d seriously consider voting third party if Trump were the nominee. With opinions of Trump already hardening, he won’t be able to fix these deficits without something bordering a miracle.
The only way Trump can win is a major national crisis — or if the Democrat nominee is in jail, which as we explained isn’t going to happen.
