Elizabeth Warren is the only candidate making sustained gains in the Democratic presidential primary polls. But reports of Joe Biden’s demise are greatly exaggerated. Following her botched campaign rollout, which left her early polling in the single digits, Warren has rebounded to a statistical tie with Biden. Still, Biden hasn’t cratered. His RealClearPolitics average hasn’t once fallen below 25%, and only Warren has joined Biden in crossing the 30% threshold.
Instead its the slow collapse of Kamala Harris and former second tier candidates, as well as a gradual bleed from Bernie Sanders, whose polling has reflected his recent health woes bringing his age to the forefront of debate. The primary has devolved into a two-way split, with the frontrunners comprising the overwhelming majority of primary support, and Sanders trailing behind as the sole spoiler to keep up his polling in the low double digits.
Single-digit candidates may use tomorrow’s debate for a Hail Mary to revive their campaigns, but for once, the focus will remain on the front-runners. If Warren excels at positioning herself as the main alternative to Biden’s candidacy and the former vice president flails, it’s hard not to see how her nomination is set. But if Biden, appearing in his first debate since a whistleblower revealed that President Trump asked a foreign government for dirt on Biden’s son Hunter, stands his ground against Warren and the president, he could see this race through.
Polls from Quinnipiac, the Economist, and Monmouth have shown Warren trending upward, but Fox News, The Hill, and Politico still grant Biden a commanding lead. Tomorrow will be the first debate that truly hinges the future of the primary, and it’s because the front-runners will finally be the focus, not because of below-the-belt attacks from 5% and 2% candidates, but because Warren and Biden will finally have to exchange blows. She can’t miss her moment, and he can’t afford to lose any and all hopes of his candidacy with one bad debate night.
