Nikki Haley is doing a huge favor for every Republican who plans on running for president in 2024, volunteering as a test subject in the post-Capitol riot political experiment into former President Donald Trump’s remaining influence within the Republican Party.
Haley, who was Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, has for some time been an expected 2024 presidential contender. Politico’s Tim Alberta confirmed that she will run in a recent profile, a profile which, among other recent items in the press, is quickly directing attention to the story of her candidacy.
Notably, rather than waiting for time to pass, allowing for Democrats to build a case against themselves for 2024, and allowing for GOP infighting to either simmer down or at least develop without herself becoming a fixture of it, Haley is blazing the 2024 trail, especially with regard to the difficult question of Trump and his place in the party. That gives other prospective candidates an example to follow if it looks like it is working, or to avoid like the plague if it looks like it isn’t.
Any person who wants to run as a Republican in 2024 is going to have to take a position on Trump and find a way to define the Trump era, to elevate the good and situate the bad. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said recently that the “MAGA movement needs to continue” and that it will for the foreseeable future. For 2024 contenders, playing nice with it is part of their task whether Trump himself runs again or not, and Haley is the foremost 2024 name who is taking it all on this quickly.
As detailed in that Politico profile, she said before the Capitol riot that Trump’s lawyers had “done a disservice to him” on questions of election fraud. She also softened her criticism of Trump by saying, “He believes he’s following [his presidential] oath,” adding, “This would be different if he was being deceptive.”
Then, after the Capitol riot, Haley told members of the Republican National Committee about Trump, “His actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history.” She also told Politico’s Alberta, “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”
Since those words were published, Haley has tried to present a more nuanced view of Trump, writing in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, “Someone can do both good and bad things.” She continued, “Most of Mr. Trump’s major policies were outstanding and made America stronger, safer and more prosperous,” while reiterating her judgment that his post-election push will be “judged harshly by history.”
The positive words haven’t outweighed the negative ones, as judged by one recent test. Haley reportedly requested a meeting with Trump this week, but he turned her down.
Republicans such as Haley are facing significant pressures right now because of Trump’s continued presence and influence, but that dynamic may well be different for Republicans in 2023 than it is right this second. Between now and the next Republican presidential primary, there will be the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans’ performance in the midterm elections, and the primary campaigns leading up to them, will be revealing as to how commanding a force Trump and Trumpism will be in 2024.
For now, for those Republicans with presidential aspirations, it must be tempting to go the safer route and let more of the story play out before showing resolution on the Trump matter. If they do that, they can stand by and see how palatable Haley’s early campaigning is rather than take the risk themselves.
