More than a few conservatives and Republicans have been puzzled by Senator – and likely 2016 presidential hopeful – Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) recent positions on immigration reform.
After months of ensuring conservatives that border security is an essential part to any good version of an immigration bill, Rubio voted, along with just four other Republicans, to leave border security out of the immigration reform bill to focus more exclusively on the legalization of millions of Hispanics in the United States illegally. This, rather unsurprisingly, befuddled and angered many conservatives who believe protecting our border is the only way to prevent this immigration fiasco from occurring again in the coming decades.
While some have seen Rubio’s actions as an example of the typical Washington-style sell-out of conservative principles, his actions are simply trying to better position himself for a presidential bid in 2016. Whatever bill emerges from the Senate this month inevitably must go to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives for approval. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has already made it clear that Republicans in the chamber will only support an immigration bill that includes provisions for border security, making it extremely unlikely that the Senate bill in its final form will be accepted.
So if Rubio, who is undoubtedly in close contact with Boehner, knows that a bill without security requirements cannot pass the House and that he will likely end up signing a bill into law that includes those requirements, why would he oppose including security in the Senate bill at all?
It all comes down to his designs for 2016. Rubio wants to be the next President of the United States, and he knows that as a popular Hispanic within the GOP voting against the border security measures in the Senate’s version of the bill puts him in a position to make inroads with Hispanic voters in three years. President George W. Bush was the last Republican to do well among Hispanics, partly because of his pro-immigration reform position.
By voting against the border security measures in the Senate’s version of the bill, Rubio puts himself in a position where he can go to the Hispanic community in 2016 and adamantly declare that his focus was always on legalizing illegal immigrants and not on building a wall that many Hispanics do not support. Yes, he will likely inevitably vote for an immigration bill that includes border security, but he can always explain to Hispanics that he had to support that measure to get the final bill passed. At the same time, Rubio will be able to appease the conservative wing of the GOP by having signed the final version of the bill with the border security plan in place.
Basically, at the end of the day, Rubio can’t lose.
