I DON’T KNOW where the war is ultimately headed or how long it will take or if it will ultimately be judged by history as a success or failure. I do know this: The talk about the campaign in Iraq being bogged down and the coalition being in this for “the long haul” is, if not ridiculous, then extremely premature.
Why? Because we’re now on Day 8 of the war and with only one or two exceptions, even the greatest, most lopsided military victories take longer than 8 days.
Remember the Grenada cakewalk? The United States invaded on October 25, 1983 and hostilities ended on November 3. If conquering Grenada (133 square miles) took 10 days, shouldn’t commentators take a wait-and-see attitude towards Iraq (169,000 square miles)? The same was true for the invasion of Panama. Begun on December 20, 1989, Manuel Noriega didn’t surrender until January 3, 1990. That’s 15 days.
The first Gulf War was no easier. The allies began the air campaign on January 17, 1991 and didn’t reach a cease-fire until February 28–43 days. And if you back up a few months, Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990. In an invasion that spent no time on the niceties of war which the United States insists upon, Saddam’s forces didn’t secure their small, militarily inferior neighbor until August 8. It took Saddam 7 days–and loads of civilian casualties–to conquer a neighbor with only 2.1 million people.
You say that’s ancient history, that we’re in a new era? Okay. How about this: In Afghanistan the United States started bombing on October 7, 2001. The last Taliban forces didn’t leave Kandahar until December 7–a 63 day campaign.
Today, each of these military actions is considered a rout and, with the exception of Iraq’s annexation of Kuwait, each took longer than the 8 days which now seem to have been allotted to the allied commanders in charge of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Still not convinced? Consider the greatest military collapse of modern times, the infamous French fold at the start of World War II. Germany invaded France on May 10, 1940, didn’t get to Paris until June 14, and didn’t get a French surrender until June 22.
Even the French–the French!–were able to hold out for 44 days. If Saddam prolongs the fighting for another 5 weeks, all he will be doing is rising to the level of military competence set by France.
Today is Day 8 of the war. Let’s try to keep some perspective.
Jonathan V. Last is online editor of The Weekly Standard.
