Berlin
THE WEATHER THIS TIME OF YEAR in Germany’s capital is quite lovely. In the early evening of September 16, dark clouds bear down heavily on the city, the air is brisk, and the temperature is in the upper 50s. It’s drizzling. And yet a large crowd has gathered at Berlin’s Gendarmenmarkt to celebrate the last preelection rally of the Social Democratic party. “Trust in Germany” reads the sign behind the stage. “Courage is in the left” the posters tell me. Every red balloon bears the words Frauen für Schröder (women for Schröder). A series of musical acts attempts to warm up the crowd but most of the faces remain glum. I ask Annette, a self-described government bureaucrat, why she is voting for the SPD on Sunday.
“Because the Christian Democrats are too conservative,” she says, while a German band begins to play salsa. “Schröder had started with the reforms and we need to complete them.” Is she a fan of the chancellor? “No, not really,” she replies. Will he emerge victorious on Sunday? “It’s going to be close but I don’t know.” The only thing Annette is sure of is her Caipirinha cocktail. “It’s great.”
Also here to show their support are Hanfried and Anke, who have been married for 33 years. “Probably I will vote for the Social Democrats,” says Hanfried. “I don’t think Frau Merkel is personable, although I don’t really like Schröder either.” Anke likes the chancellor a bit more but also thinks the world won’t come to an end if Angela Merkel wins. Both begin to grimace as the loudspeaker in front of us starts blaring German rap. “I hate this,” says Hanfried.
Johannes, on the other hand, seems to like the music. The 22-year-old student bobs his head to the rhythms of Teutonic hip-hop in between drags from his cigarette. “Merkel is not a politician. She is a scientist,” he points out. Will she win? “In the end, I think Schröder can pull it out the way he did the last time [in 2002]. Everyone should know by now not to underestimate him.” Not that Johannes is actually voting for the SPD. “My first vote [Germans cast two votes–one for a representative, another for a party] will go to the Greens. My second might go to the new Left party. Or maybe just the Party.” (A spoof of a political party managed to get itself on the ballot after acquiring the necessary signatures, qualifying it for print ads and air time. Simply called the Party, it apparently ran ads in support of reconstructing the Berlin Wall and sold its television spot on eBay to a Swiss company advertising its products.)
The shower becomes steady and I head for the Warsteiner beer tent. I ask an elderly gentleman nearby if he is supporting the chancellor’s party on Sunday. “No, I just work down the street. I really don’t know who I am voting for.” He then elaborated that no matter who wins, “Germany has lost faith in the government.” And he is right, at least according to Kerstin Plehwe, chairman of Initiative Pro Dialog, a political outreach organization: “Some 50 percent of Germans trusted in their government in 1983. Today that number is down to 17 percent.”
The latest poll numbers from the financial paper Handelsblatt indicate the Christian Democrats have dipped to 40.6 percent although the Social Democrats have also slipped back to 33.4 percent. More interesting is the increase in support for the Free Democrats, now between 7 and 8 percent. “Seven percent is definitely the magic number for us,” says Martin Biesel, chief of staff to FDP chairman Guido Westerwelle, “though we would be even happier with eight or nine or ten [percent].” When I saw Biesel earlier in the afternoon at party headquarters, he sounded upbeat about the coalition’s prospects. “From everything I have heard, the trend is pointing back in our direction.”
When elections were first announced in May, the poll numbers had shown such overwhelming support for the Christian Democrats that they did not initially spend much time campaigning. Schröder took this opportunity to focus his attack on what the opposition had to offer as an alternative. “The debate was no longer about the unemployment rate or the actions of the current government. Instead it was about the CDU and its agenda,” explained Henning Krumrey, an editor at Focus magazine. Making matters worse, an economics professor expected to be named finance minister in a Merkel regime recently decided to publicize his flat tax plan–not without its merits though for Germans a very radical idea, which the chancellor tore into. (Just to illustrate the difficulties in changing tax policy: In 1912, in order to fulfill the kaiser’s dream of a world-class navy, a tax was issued on champagne to help finance it’s construction. After the Battle of Jutland in World War I, the fleet was annihilated–and yet the champagne tax remains.)
Merkel’s advisers should have also lowered expectations following the only one-on-one televised debate for the two candidates. Despite pundits in print and on television saying the CDU candidate performed well enough, polls showed more than 60 percent of Germans thought the chancellor had won. At which point the Christian Democrats’ lead dwindled even further.
With less than 72 hours left in the campaign, the pendulum may be swinging back towards the opposition alliance. Based on the mood at the Gendarmenmarkt, it certainly seemed that way and not just wishful thinking by one side. As the air got cooler and the rain continued to pour, like other bystanders in the square, I decided not to get soaked by waiting around for the chancellor. There were better things to do–like getting another beer or eating a Dönerkebab. Besides, the real highlight of the rally may have come when a woman on stage announced to the crowd she was in favor of a Black-Yellow coalition amid boos and looks of embarrassment. Somewhere in Berlin, an advance man is getting fired.
Victorino Matus is an assistant managing editor at The Weekly Standard. His visit to Germany is made by possible by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, an affiliate of the Free Democratic Party.
