Can a Democrat win the governorship of Louisiana? None has since 2003, when a Democratic ad showing Republican candidate Bobby Jindal with his skin tone considerably darker than in life helped Kathleen Blanco eke out a 52 to 48 percent win. And Louisiana, after twice voting for Bill Clinton in the 1990s, has been a solidly Republican state in this century’s presidential elections. But Democratic hopes have been raised since last Saturday’s all-party-primary, in which Democrat John Bel Edwards, a Baton Rouge state representative, led Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter by a 40 to 23 percent margin.
But that’s not the full story. Vitter, from suburban New Orleans, had two serious Republican opponents, Scott Angelle, a public service commissioner from the Cajun country, and Jay Dardenne, lieutenant governor since 2010 from Baton Rouge. Angelle won 19 percent of the vote and Dardenne won 15 percent. Altogether the three Republicans won 57 percent of the votes while Edwards and two little-known Democrats won 42 percent. Under Louisiana law, any candidate who wins more than 50 percent in the initial primary is elected; if none does, there is a runoff between the top two finishers, regardless of party.
So if Vitter can corral all or almost all of the Republican votes, he’s likely to win the November 21 runoff. But if his personal negatives, including admitted visits to a Washington area prostitute, cost him many votes, Edwards could conceivably win.
The percentages for the two parties’ candidates in the October primary are almost identical to the parties’ percentage in the 2012 presidential general election, in which Mitt Romney won 58 percent of Louisiana’s votes and Barack Obama won 41 percent. There was not much variance either in different regions of the state. In metro New Orleans,* which cast 25 percent of the states’ votes, Republican candidates led Democrats by a 53 to 46 percent margin; in 2012 the region was split almost evenly, voting 49.02 to 48.98 percent Republican. In metro Baton Rouge, which cast 19 percent of the state’s votes, Republicans led Democrats by the same 53 to 46 percent margin; Romney beat Obama there 55 to 43 percent. In the remainder of the state, Republicans led Democrats 61 to 38 percent, a bit less than Romney’s 63 to 36 percent margin.
What seems to have happened is that (1) October 2015 turnout in the central cities of New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport was down disproportionately from November 2012 turnout, presumably among black voters who comprise majorities there, and (2) Democrats ran slightly better than Obama in the rest of the state. We have become used to very solid and enduring partisan alignments over the past 15 to 20 years, and in Louisiana they seem to be largely enduring, even in a gubernatorial election in which a candidate of the minority party (in Louisiana the Democrats) have the opportunity to plausibly claim to differ from their party’s national nominee. Lower black turnout combined with somewhat greater acceptability of the main Democratic candidate resulted in a wash — just about the same partisan split as in the presidential election. It’s possible that Vitter could lose the runoff, but if so that would reflect liabilities specific to him rather than a weakening of Republican party support.
*Definitional note: Metro New Orleans includes the following parishes (the Louisiana word for counties): Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist and St. Tammany. Metro Baton Rouge includes the following parishes: Ascension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana.
