After months of dragging their feet about whether to impeach President Trump over his campaign’s dealings with Russia, House Democrats are racing toward impeachment over his dealings with Ukraine.
With Trump promising to release the transcript of his call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday and House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff announcing that they will hear from the whistleblower this week, we’re going to learn a lot more about Trump’s words and actions then we know now. But regardless of what subsequent information reveals, it’s clear that the internal politics on impeachment has changed for Democrats.
Going into 2019, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi knew that there was virtually no way that there would ever be two-thirds of the Republican-controlled Senate that would vote to remove Trump from office. So ultimately, Pelosi had to balance competing political questions when considering impeachment.
Could she hold liberals at bay? Would impeachment imperil Democrats in swing districts? Would protecting Trump from punishment be a difficult vote for Senate Republicans in tight races?
In the early months of the new majority and in the wake of Robert Mueller’s report, Pelosi clearly decided that the political risks of impeachment were too high relative to the rewards.
Even with liberals convinced that the Mueller report provided a road map to impeachment, by failing to establish a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia or explicitly saying Trump obstructed justice, the Mueller report was too inconclusive to change the politics. That is, Republicans in competitive seats had nothing to fear by opposing impeachment, while Democrats in Trump-friendly areas had reason to fear voting for an ultimately doomed impeachment effort.
But the Ukraine story has clearly changed these dynamics. Firstly, it made liberals that much more furious about Pelosi’s reluctance to impeach and made it more difficult for her to explain inaction. Secondly, it has given Democrats an issue that’s much easier to explain than the convoluted Russia story. In this case, the straight-forward charge is that Trump tried to pressure a foreign government into investigating a political rival while delaying foreign aid to the country. That makes it easier for House Democrats in marginal districts to explain a vote to impeach, and makes them more confident that a vote to protect Trump will be harder for Republicans in blue and purple states to defend.
Of course, there is still a risk here. We have not seen polling on impeachment reflecting the most recent Ukraine revelations. It’s possible the public is just as against the idea now as it ever was before. And most importantly, it’s possible that subsequent information will prove the story to be less damaging to Trump than the initial reporting makes it seem. But at this point, the risks to Pelosi of demoralizing the base by doing nothing, on balance, were clearly greater than moving forward on impeachment.
