The Virginia governor’s race, the nation’s most closely watched political contest this year, is expected to shatter spending records in a financial arms race that political observers suggest could reach $60 million.
While that figure may end up reduced by a sour economy, it underscores the sheer magnitude of fundraising expectations in an election season that’s already on pace to crack the $46 million record set during the three-way 2005 gubernatorial election.
Now that the Democrats have found their candidate — rural state Sen. Creigh Deeds — an influx of national Democratic cash is expected to descend on Virginia. The Republican nominee, former Attorney General Bob McDonnell, has already seen major aid from national Republican groups, which are far and away his largest donors.
Political experts and campaign staffers said Thursday they expected the candidates to at least surpass the 2005 record and offered estimates that ran as high as $30 million in spending each.
Del. Bob Brink, D-Arlington, declined to venture a number, but said he expected the spending to be “astronomical.”
“Considering how increasingly difficult it is to reach people, to contact voters, I think campaigns are likely to do two things — to put more money into TV and then to look at various kinds of new media strategies to reach them,” he said.
Brink said that though the campaign of Barack Obama showed that less expensive, Web-based media could reach voters, “it’s still in the testing stage for candidates” in Virginia.
“If I were Bob McDonnell or Creigh Deeds, would I be willing to completely trust in the experience of Barack Obama last year? I don’t think I would,” he said.
The three Democrats who sought their party’s nomination and McDonnell had raised $25 million through May, a record total for that point in a governor’s race.
“The safest bet you can probably make is that this race will break all prior fundraising records in Virginia,” said McDonnell communications director Tucker Martin.
Deeds, who won the primary by a huge margin despite lagging in fundraising, has a reputation for campaign frugality. Still, he will not be able to avoid some of the costliest aspects of the race, including television buys in the D.C. market.
“At the end of the day, it’s not going to be about dollar for dollar,” said Deeds spokesman Jared Leopold. “It’s going to be about who runs the smartest campaign and who is most in tune about the issues Virginians care about.”
