China has been forced into a delicate tightrope act between supporting allied Russia and not being implicated in the global condemnation of Moscow for invading Ukraine.
Last month, Russia and China released a communique outlining a wide range of economic and diplomatic cooperation plans. But Chinese officials have seemingly distanced themselves from Russia since the invasion began last week.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on Tuesday that Beijing “deeply regrets that conflict has broken out between Ukraine and Russia and is paying extreme attention to the harm suffered by civilians,” according to Insider Paper, which cited broadcaster CCTV.
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China “supports all constructive international efforts that are conducive towards a political resolution,” Wang said. Meanwhile, Kuleba, who reportedly asked for help ending the war, noted Ukraine “looks forward to China opening mediations in order to realize a ceasefire.”
The comments from Chinese leaders this week appear to be a shift in tone from before the invasion, including by Wang himself. Wang previously said, “Russia’s reasonable security concerns should be respected and taken seriously,” in an apparent reference to Russian leader Vladimir Putin‘s demand that Ukraine be barred from joining NATO.
Putin has found himself ostracized internationally as he personally faces sanctions, accusations of war crimes, and exactly what he was trying to prevent: a cohesive and motivated NATO near his doorstep.
The United States, NATO, and other allies have levied sanctions on Putin, elites in Russia, as well as their financial system. The West has provided the Ukrainian military with additional weaponry and resources while trying not to escalate the situation further.
Within the Russian-Chinese doctrine announced last month, the Kremlin showed support for Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over the island democracy of Taiwan and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping’s support for restrictions on NATO activities in Europe.
“China is in a difficult spot right now,” Matt Kroenig, a former Defense official and current Georgetown University professor, told the Washington Examiner. “I bet [Chinese President Xi Jinping] didn’t fully understand what he was signing up for. If he had imagined that Putin was going to engage in this naked aggression that was going to rally the rest of the free world against him in such a dramatic way, I’m not sure China would be standing by.”
Even though both countries share a “common interest in pushing back against U.S. leadership,” China still wants to be “economically intertwined with much of the rest of the world.”
There was some fear among lawmakers that China could make a move on Taiwan, an island nation off China’s coast that claims independence from Beijing while the mainland claims control over it. Those concerns should be tempered after the way the initial invasion played out, according to Mark Cancian, a senior adviser for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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He told the Washington Examiner the “response by NATO and other countries, both military and diplomatic, has to cause China to think hard about any move on Taiwan and figuring that the United States might be able to marshal a similar response to any aggressive move that they make.” However, he noted, “a lot will depend on the final outcome.”
Before the invasion, senior Biden administration officials had half a dozen meetings with top Chinese representatives in an effort to get them to urge Putin not to go to war in Ukraine. Those efforts were unsuccessful.
