D.C. Council Chairman Vincent C. Gray is understandably over the moon. His mayoral bid received a big boast last week when it won the Ward 3 Democrats’ straw poll — 174-168 — against Mayor Adrian M. Fenty.
The margin of victory may seem insignificant. But, as former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder once proclaimed, it takes only one vote to win.
Adam Rubinson, the Ward 3 resident managing Gray’s citywide campaign, said people “underestimated the level of support” and there’s significant disaffection with Fenty. (Rubinson should know; he’s a former Fenty fan.)
“We have a large, motivated group of [volunteers],” Rubinson continued. “We outorganized and outworked our opponent’s paid team.”
Fenty is fortunate. A straw poll isn’t a real election. It doesn’t necessarily come with any endorsement, promise of money, or even more volunteers. And as Rubinson noted in my interview with him, the people voting in these election test runs are largely political diehards. Average citizens haven’t yet connected.
When I asked Fenty’s campaign to comment about the loss, it wanted to accentuate the positive, pointing out his recent endorsement by the Laborers’ International Union. “We’re focused on building momentum toward September 14th and making sure our city continues the great progress we’ve seen under Adrian Fenty’s leadership,” said Helen Hare, the campaign’s spokeswoman.
Gray’s victory should send a signal to the mayor’s “Green Machine” that Gray’s team does have organizing strength. “Fenty is in serious trouble — even a blind man can see that,” said a political operative with knowledge of the two mayoral contenders’ efforts.
I’ve covered political campaigns in this city since 1982; I know it’s much too early to start calling the race. Both mayoral organizations still are in the weeds: Fenty just turned in 21,000 signatures on qualifying petitions to ensure his name appears on the ballot. Gray hasn’t even submitted his petitions. Both are actively involved in soliciting volunteers and creating message materials.
Truth be told, straw polls and endorsement meetings are merely an opportunity for each campaign to take the other’s measure: How much effort does it take for Gray to win in Ward 3? Is Fenty mimicking Muhammad Ali’s “rope-a-dope,” or is his organization in disarray? Neither campaign has hit its stride.
“This is still a very competitive race, and Fenty still has plenty of money,” said another political operative.
The mayor has more than $3 million. Insiders told me he soon may release television ads: “A lot of voters have fixed opinions [about him]. The only way to change that is to come into their living rooms,” said a campaign source.
Gray’s not talking television and he doesn’t even have $1 million. But everyone knows money — even lots of it — doesn’t spell victory any more than those straw polls. During his first council campaign, Kwame Brown beat down then-incumbent Harold Brazil with nothing more than chump change.
Jonetta rose barras can be reached at [email protected]
