Recent polling reveals a predictable partisan reaction to Sarah Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee – Republicans swooned, Democrats were less impressed, with “independents” somewhere in between. Sharp political divisions among self-identified partisans are not surprising. But a closer look at the numbers reveals why McCain’s vice presidential selection may gives him a advantage in an election that increasingly looks like it could go down to the wire. From one perspective, the Palin and Biden choices produced similar political consequences. For example, the above referenced ABC poll shows Republicans rating Palin favorably and Democrats rating Biden favorably, with each candidate receiving nearly identical ratings from independents. But Palin’s “favorables” among Republicans are higher than Biden’s among the Democrats (85 percent versus 77 percent). This suggests the Alaska governor helps McCain more than Biden does Obama among each candidate’s respective base voters. The ABC News analysis supports this point:
This earlier Gallup survey also gives credence to that conclusion:
Motivating “base voters” boosts campaigns in obvious ways–turnout, money, volunteers, etc. But these strong partisans also can assist in a surprising manner. I recently wrote a piece for the Washington Times that demonstrated a big chunk of the “independent” voter universe is best described as “closet partisans.” Here’s the bottom line. While many of these voters tell pollsters they are “independent,” they actually typically lean toward one party or the other. But these “leaners” also tend to be less informed, and are heavily influenced by their surrounding communities and friends when it comes to vote choice. As University of Maryland political scientist Jim Gimpel likes to say: “They listen to the loudest voice in the cafeteria.” Enthusiastic partisans (base voters) can sway these “independent” lean Democrats or lean Republicans (about two-thirds of the independent universe) in their respective partisan directions. In other words, a fired-up base will help win the support of these independents. I suspect the enthusiasm surrounding the Obama campaign is strengthening his numbers among Democratic-leaning independents. Sarah Palin is doing the same for John McCain with a group of voters that usually supports Republicans but have been drifting away from the GOP. Much of John McCain’s recent move in the polls is due to more excited “base” voters pulling these weaker partisans along.
