Trump, Merkel may have ‘different’ bilateral relationship

Barack Obama and George W. Bush both enjoyed notably close relationships with Merkel during their presidencies. Obama’s final phone call to a world leader went to Merkel in January, during which he thanked her and her husband for their personal friendship over the previous eight years.

Bush hosted Merkel at his ranch in Crawford, Texas in 2007 after inadvertently creating one of the first viral political videos the previous year by aggressively rubbing Merkel’s shoulders at the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia.

But Trump has already demonstrated his willingness to question the value of institutions staunchly supported by Merkel, such as NATO and the European Union, which could complicate his relationship with the German leader.

Trump has been critical of Merkel personally in the past. He argued on Twitter in 2015 that she is “ruining Germany” and told a British publication earlier this year that her open-door refugee policy has become a “catastrophic mistake.”

The president declined to say whether he would support Merkel in her upcoming reelection bid when asked about that race in January.

“I don’t know who she’s running against, number one, I’m just saying, I don’t know her, I’ve never met her,” Trump replied. “As I said, I’ve had great respect for her. I felt she was a great, great leader. I think she made one very catastrophic mistake and that was taking all of these illegals, you know taking all of the people from wherever they come from. Now, with that being said, I respect her, I like her, but I don’t know her. So I can’t talk about who I’m gonna be backing — if anyone.”

Ronald Granieri, executive director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Merkel isn’t likely to return Trump’s criticisms while visiting Washington this week.

“She may offer some vague criticisms of American policy, but I think she is going to more or less emphasize that she is a long-term partner of the U.S.,” Granieri said.

While that may reflect her pragmatic nature, Granieri said, “it’s also a reflection of the political situation she finds herself in.”

Merkel is facing challenges from both her right and left as she seeks her fourth term as chancellor ahead of her country’s elections in September. Like France, the U.K. and the Netherlands, Germany has been swept by a populist movement that has gained strength as the European migrant crisis has worsened.

“She and Trump are very different personalities,” Granieri said.”I think that she would like very much for the relationship between Germany and the U.S. to be as low-drama as possible.”

Senior administration officials told reporters last week that Trump’s meeting with Merkel would focus in part on the Ukrainian peace process, in which Germany has played a key role since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

Merkel is set to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on May 2, and Granieri said he expects the topic of Russia to be front and center during her meeting with Trump.

“I think in the name of wanting to make the discussions with Trump look and feel positive, that there’ll be a lot of talk about constructive engagement on Russia,” he said.

Trump’s push for a normalization of relations with the Kremlin has met fierce resistance from Democrats and hawkish members of his own party, who have called on the administration to take harsher measures against Russia for its cyberattacks on Democrats during the U.S. presidential campaign.

Granieri said Merkel “has a lot of reasons to want a stable, positive relationship with Russia,” including pressure from the German business community and a sense of responsibility given Germany’s role as a leader in Europe.

“She’s going to want to stump for the maintenance of continued sanctions on Russia … there will be a lot of emphasis on some kind of dialogue with Russia.”

The White House postponed Merkel’s visit earlier this week in anticipation of a winter storm that blanketed Washington in several inches of snow.