Republicans’ projected seat lead in the race for control of the House is shrinking, according to a new analysis.
CBS News updated its Battleground Tracker this weekend to show Republicans likely to win a narrow House majority rather than the red wave some were predicting just a few months ago. The analysis estimated that Republicans would hold 226 seats after November, down from the 230 it estimated in July. In order to hold a majority, a party must control 218 seats in the House.
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The shift follows other projections reducing the number of seats House Republicans are expected to gain, including one from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The shifts in projections come as President Joe Biden’s job approval and his ratings on key areas, such as the economy, inflation, and gas prices, have all increased in recent weeks. Biden’s overall job approval number is the highest it has been among registered voters since February, according to the CBS News poll.
While CBS found that Republicans continue to lead with voters who say they prioritize the economy, three factors are chipping away at their lead: abortion, decreasing gas prices, and noneconomic factors including former President Donald Trump.
There are some indications that the Supreme Court’s June ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which reversed its previous landmark decision in Roe v. Wade, energized Democratic voters. A ballot initiative to remove the right to an abortion under the Kansas Constitution failed in that state earlier this month, and Democrat Pat Ryan won a recent special election in a swing district in upstate New York after campaigning on abortion access.
Biden has been plagued by low approval ratings largely tied to rising consumer costs as well as increasing gas prices. But as gas prices go down, voters’ views of how Biden is handling the economy have improved.
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When asked if the events surrounding the Justice Department investigation into Trump’s handling of classified records influenced their votes for November, two-thirds of voters said no. Among those who said yes, 44% said it made them want to support Democrats more, while 47% said the same for Republicans.
Many independents and female voters also gave poor marks to Republican candidates who were endorsed by Trump, labeling them as extreme.
