MARIUPOL’S LAST STAND: Low on food and ammo, Mariupol’s last defenders are surrounded and confined to a small area of the city in and around the Azovstal iron and steelworks, a sprawling complex of industrial buildings and blast furnaces. Yet, still, they are defiantly refusing to surrender, ignoring Russia’s Sunday deadline to lay down their arms.
“City still has not fallen. There is still our military forces, our soldiers. So they will fight to the end,” said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on ABC. Russian forces captured the Mariupol Port and now control all entry and exit from the city.
For almost two months, against overwhelming odds, Ukrainian soldiers have mounted a heroic, unrelenting resistance, prompting comparisons to the losing battle of the Alamo in 1836, which rallied Texas to defeat Mexico’s army, as well as the epic World War II siege of Stalingrad, in which the Nazi were ultimately defeated by the Soviet Union.
But with no way to resupply the small number of defenders, the fall of Mariupol appears imminent. “The remainings of the Ukrainian army and large group of civilians are basically encircled by the Russian forces,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on CBS. “They continue their struggle, but it seems, from the way the Russian army behaves in Mariupol, they decided to raze the city to the ground at any cost.”
SIX DEAD AFTER BARRAGE OF RUSSIAN MISSILES STRIKE LVIV: UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS
‘HUGE HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE’: There is little left in Mariupol that hasn’t been damaged or destroyed. Estimates of civilian casualties range between 10,000 and 22,000, according to the city’s mayor.
“No one knows how many people died among the civilian population,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on CNN. “Hundreds of thousands were evacuated. Several thousand, tens of thousands, were forced to evacuate in the direction of the Russian Federation. And we do not know where they are.”
“About 5,000 children deported from this region to Russian side, because they didn’t allow them to go to … the Ukrainian-controlled side,” said Zelensky. “So, we don’t know what — the children, where are they? Nobody knows.”
The city once held 450,000 people, but it’s believed between 50,000 and 120,000 remain trapped there in increasingly dire conditions. “There is huge humanitarian catastrophe because there is more than 100 [thousand] civilians which are suffering for more than 40 days of this humanitarian crisis in this besieged city,” said Shmyhal. “They have no water, no food, no heat, no electricity.”
“The situation in Mariupol is both dire militarily and heartbreaking,” said Kuleba. “The city doesn’t exist anymore.”
UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: MARIUPOL ‘DOESN’T EXIST ANYMORE’
RUSSIA’S FINAL ASSAULT WILL LIKELY ‘COST THEM DEARLY’: The latest analysis from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War predicts Russian troops will try to avoid deadly close combat clearing operations at Azovstal steel plant, which would likely result in high casualties, if in fact the Ukrainians there fight to the death.
“Russian forces likely seek to force the remaining defenders of the Azovstal factory to capitulate through overwhelming firepower to avoid costly clearing operations, but remaining Ukrainian defenders appear intent on staging a final stand,” the ISW analysis says. “Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming week, but final assaults will likely continue to cost them dearly.”
The Russians, said Kuleba on CBS, are desperate “to finish with Mariupol at any cost,” which would create an uncontested land corridor from Crimea to the Russian-controlled territory in the Donbas.
The analysis also discounts Russian propaganda which claims that the Zelensky government has denied Ukrainian forces the option of surrender and ordered Azov Regiment troops to shoot any Ukrainian soldiers who attempt to surrender, calling that “part of the Kremlin’s ongoing information operation to falsely portray the Ukrainian military as a minority of ‘nationalists’ forcing the rest of the military to fight on.”
ZELENSKY SAYS BETWEEN 2,500 AND 3,000 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS HAVE DIED
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to welcome Philippine Defense Minister Delfin Lorenzana to the Pentagon at 2:30 p.m.
Relations between the United States and the Philippines have been fractious at times since the election of President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016. The latest flashpoint was the release last week of the State Department’s 2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, which accused the Philippine government of being unable to control some of its security forces, citing “credible reports that members of the security forces committed numerous abuses.”
The report cited “significant human rights issues,” including credible reports of “unlawful or arbitrary killings,” “extrajudicial killings,” reports of “forced disappearance” and “torture by and on behalf of the government,” and “arbitrary detention” with “harsh and life-threatening prison conditions.”
“We question the State Department’s report of abuses by security forces,” Lorenzana said in a statement in response. “We challenge it to provide us with details so our Commission on Human Rights, a constitutional and independent body, can verify them. Absent these data, the accusations are nothing but innuendos and witch-hunt. At worst, the state has become a gullible victim of black propaganda.”
THE COMING SHOWDOWN IN THE DONBAS: In his interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper that aired yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the coming battle in the eastern Donbas region would likely determine the outcome of the war.
“For us, this battle is very important for many reasons. It is very important to win this battle,” Zelensky said, noting his best, battle-tested troops are based in that area. “Our grouping that is located in Donbas is one of the best military we have. It’s a large grouping. And Russia wants to encircle them and destroy them. It is nearly 40,000 people. It is 44,000 professional military men who survived a great war from the beginning of 2014.”
“We are doing everything to ensure defense. We are in constant contact with partners. We are grateful to those who really help with everything they can,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address. “But those who have the weapons and ammunition we need and delay their provision must know that the fate of this battle also depends on them.”
“Russian troops are preparing for an offensive operation in the east of our country. It will begin in the near future. They want to literally finish off and destroy Donbas,” he said.
ZELENSKY VOWS TO NOT GIVE UP TERRITORY TO END WAR
‘STILL NOT ENOUGH’: Retired U.S. military commanders continue to express frustration with the Biden administration for not going the extra mile to ensure Ukraine has what it needs to soundly defeat the Russian troops, who have suffered heavy casualties and are struggling to regroup.
On Face the Nation on CBS, retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, said the latest package of U.S. arms being shipped to Ukraine — in particular, the 18 Howitzers and 40,000 artillery shells — are important but “still not enough.”
“I would really like to hear the administration talk about winning and having a sense of urgency on getting these things there,” Hodges said. “Otherwise, this window of opportunity we have, the next couple of weeks, to really disrupt Russia’s attempt to build up is going to pass.”
“I’m reluctant to say that the administration doesn`t want them to win. But what needs to be stated is, what is our objective, the United States?” he told CBS’s Margaret Brennan. “You know, we’re not just observers cheering for Ukraine here. This is about democracy across Europe and stopping an autocracy.”
CZECH REPUBLIC WARNS LATEST US ARMS SHIPMENT TOO SMALL TO MEET UKRAINIAN NEEDS
THE PRICE OF FAILURE: According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly holding his senior officers accountable for their manifest failures in Ukraine.
“The Kremlin is increasingly arresting Russian and proxy officers for failures in Ukraine,” the ISW says, quoting Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate. It also reports that Russian military authorities have established a commission to identify the reasons for personnel shortages among Russian forces.
“The GUR [Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate] reported that Russian investigators discovered the commanders of Russia’s 3rd Motor Rifle Brigade was 100% staffed at the beginning of the invasion when it in fact only had 55% of its personnel and arrested two battalion commanders in the brigade.”
“The GUR also reported the FSB arrested DNR Defense Spokesperson Eduard Basurin for his ‘careless statement’ on April 11 revealing Russian intent to use chemical weapons in Mariupol, though there is still no independent confirmation of the Ukrainian claim of Russian chemical weapons use.”
Among the reported arrests is Vice Adm. Igor Ossipov, commander of the Russian Black Sea fleet, whose flagship, the Moskva, was sunk by Ukrainian cruise missiles last week.
PENTAGON AFFIRMS RUSSIAN FLAGSHIP BLASTED BY UKRAINIAN MISSILES BEFORE SINKING
DO WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THE SOLOMON ISLANDS? In the wake of a leaked draft security cooperation agreement between the Solomon Islands and China, the U.S. is dispatching a high-level delegation to the region, headed by National Security Council Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell and Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.
The delegation, which includes representatives from the National Security Council, the State Department, the Pentagon, and USAID, will visit the three Pacific Island nations of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands. But it’s the Solomons, site of one of the pivotal battles of World War II, that has suddenly grabbed Washington’s attention.
Of particular concern is a provision of the draft agreement with China that would permit Beijing to send armed police or military personnel, at the request of the Solomon Islands, for a variety of purposes, including to “assist in maintaining social order,” according to a report by Josh Rogin in the Washington Post.
In a press release, the prime minister’s office said the Solomon Islands are seeking a number of new security arrangements with its neighbors, as part of its “Friends to all, enemies to none” policy.
Last week, a bipartisan congressional delegation visited Australia, which has an existing security relationship with the Solomons, and met with senior leaders of the Australian government as well as opposition party members.
“We share Australia’s concern regarding Beijing’s aggressive efforts to expand its influence, particularly through its proposed security pact with the Solomon Islands, and hope to work with Australia to address this behavior,” said the group, which included Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Richard Burr of North Carolina, Rob Portman of Ohio, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, and Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas. New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez was the lone Democrat in the group.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Six dead after barrage of Russian missiles strike Lviv: Ukrainian officials
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian foreign minister: Mariupol ‘doesn’t exist anymore’
Washington Examiner: Zelensky vows to not give up territory to end war
Washington Examiner: Zelensky says between 2,500 and 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died
Washington Examiner: Zelensky says Biden should visit Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Ramzan Kadyrov says he thinks Zelensky has ‘schizophrenia’
Washington Examiner: Czech Republic warns latest US arms shipment too small to meet Ukrainian needs
Washington Examiner: Increasingly isolated Moscow blacklists British leaders
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why the US should reject Russian threats over Ukraine arms and Scandinavian accession to NATO
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Before peace is possible, Ukraine will have to experience more war
Washington Examiner: Pentagon affirms Russian flagship blasted by Ukrainian missiles before sinking
Breaking Defense: What Should The U.S. Navy Learn From Moskva’s Demise?
Washington Examiner: Marine Corps faces religious freedom lawsuit
New York Times: North Korea Launches 2 Short-Range Missiles
AP: Syrian fighters ready to join next phase of Ukraine war
AP: US military changes explanation of attack on base in Syria
Washington Post: U.S., allies plan for long-term isolation of Russia
FedScoop: Mysterious American Robotic Ships Headed To Ukraine
South China Morning Post: As Ukrainian Troops Hold Off Russia, Taiwan Sees Cross-Strait Benefits Of Closer U.S. Military Training
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Academy Separates 22 Cadets for Cheating
Air Force Magazine: Brown: KC-Y and KC-Z Likely Traditional Tankers; NGAD Has the Range ‘to Go Where it Needs to Go’
Air Force Magazine: Losses in Ukraine Won’t Change Russian Threat or USAF Posture, Brown Says
Defense One: Defense Department Sets Out to Build Miniature Nuclear Reactor, Again
Defense One: Russia’s Artificial Intelligence Boom May Not Survive the War
19fortyfive.com: 50,000,000 Bullets and More: Check Out the Weapons Biden Is Giving Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Putin Believes He Is Winning the War in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why 2022 Will Be the Year of the F-35
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How China Would Wage War Against the ‘Great Wall In Reverse’
AP: Report: Northernmost Military Bases Not Prepared For Climate Change
Calendar
MONDAY | APRIL 18
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation webinar: “Understanding AFRL’s WARTECH,” with Christopher Ristich, director, Air Force Strategic Development Planning and Experimentation office; and retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC) Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: Navalny focusing on Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny with Leonid Volkov, founder of the Internet Protection Society and head of the Network of Regional Headquarters for Alexei Navalny; and Maria Pevchikh, investigative journalist and head of the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s Investigative Unit https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/discussion-navalny-documentary
12 p.m. — New America virtual book discussion: “The Bin Laden Papers: How the Abbottabad Raid Revealed the Truth About al-Qaeda,” with author Nelly Lahoud, senior fellow at the New American International Security program https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events
2:30 p.m. Pentagon, River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Philippines Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana to the Pentagon.
TUESDAY | APRIL 19
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation webinar: “Building Alliances and Competing with China: The Imperative for UAV Export Reforms,” with author Heather Penney, senior resident fellow, Mitchell Institute; and Paul Scharre, vice president and director of studies, Center for a New American Security https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion: “Joint All-Domain Command and Control: Bringing the DOD’s innovative command and control to life,” with James Adams, deputy director for requirements and capability development at the Joint Staff J8; Scott Stapp, Northrop Grumman CTO; Steve Walker, Lockheed Martin CTO; and John Ferrari, AEI nonresident senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/joint-all-domain-command-and-control
9 a.m. — American Society of International Law virtual discussion: “Displacement in and from Ukraine: Risks, Responses, and Legal Dimensions,” with Jean-Pierre Gauci, senior fellow at the British Institute of International and Comparative Law ; Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea Anton Korynevych; Maja Lysienia, Polish national expert at the European Council on Refugees and Exiles; Meltem Ineli-Ciger, assistant professor at Suleyman Demirel University; Noemi Magugliani, research fellow at BIICL; Ukrainian Supreme Court Judge Olena Kibenko; and Yulia Ioffe, lecturer in international law at University College London https://www.asil.org/event/displacement-and-ukraine-risks
9 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Germany and the Impact of the War in Ukraine,” with Tobias Lindner, member of the German Bundestag; and Hope Harrison, professor of history and international affairs at GWU https://calendar.gwu.edu/germany-and-impact-war-ukraine
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “How the Chinese Public Views Russia’s War in Ukraine,” with Michael Cerny, associate editor at the Carter Center; Yawei Liu, senior adviser for China Focus at the Carter Center; Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; and Jude Blanchette, chair in China studies at CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/how-chinese-public-views-russias-war-ukraine
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Russia’s war on Ukraine and its implications for France’s foreign policy and Franco-American relations.” with French Ambassador to the United States Philippe Etienne on https://www.hudson.org/events/2097-virtual-event
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual forum: “Electrifying the Future Fleet,” with Rear Adm. Lorin Selby, chief of naval research at the Office of Naval Research; and retired Army Lt. Gen. Jack Klimp, president and CEO of the Navy-Marine Corps Relief Society https://events.govexec.stcom/electrifying-future-fleet/
2 p.m. 14th and F Sts. N.W. — National Press Club Newsmaker Program with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall on “the Air Force FY2023 budget request and his vision for the department’s transformation to face future threats,” https://www.press.org/events/npc-newsmaker
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 20
TBA — President Joe Biden meets with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleesn Hicks, all eight members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and all U.S. combatant commanders in the Cabinet Room. At night, Biden and the First Lady host a dinner for everyone and their spouses in the Blue Room.
8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group’s Federal Computer Week virtual workshop: “Digital Revolution,” with Steve Wallace, systems innovation specialist at the Defense Information Systems Agency’s Emerging Technologies Directorate https://events.fcw.com/digital-revolution
8:45 a.m. 2500 Calvert St. N.W. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Cyber Mission Summit, with Nancy Kriedler, director for cybersecurity and information assurance in the Office of the Army CIO for Command, Control, Communications, Cyber Operations and Networks; Air Force Brig. Gen. Matteo Martemucci, director of intelligence at the U.S. Cyber Command; and Holly Baroody, deputy to the commander at the Cyber National Mission Force https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/CybersecurityTechSummit
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Tracking Developments in Counterspace Weapons,” with Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; Victoria Samson, Washington office director at the Secure World Foundation; and Michael Mineiro, vice president of legal, regulatory, and government affairs at HawkEye 360, Inc. https://www.csis.org/events/tracking-developments-counterspace-weapons
9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual discussion: “Fiscal Year 2023 Department of Defense Science and Technology Budget Priorities,” with Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Research and Technology William Nelson; Deputy Assistant Air Force Secretary for Science, Technology and Engineering Kristen Baldwin; and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Director Stephanie Tompkins https://www.ndia.org/events
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, “Following the Crypto: Using Blockchain Analysis to Assess the Strengths and Vulnerabilities of North Korean Hackers,” with Eric Penton-Voak, coordinator at the UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Nick Carlsen, blockchain intelligence analyst at TRM Labs; Jason Bartlett, research associate at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program; and Yaya Fanusie, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-following-the-crypto
10 a.m. — The SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. virtual discussion: “NATO’s Response and the U.S. Policy on Ukraine,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Mark Katz, professor at George Mason University’s School of Policy and Government; Kilic Kanat, SETA research director; and Kadir Ustun, SETA executive director https://tinyurl.com/444yux92
10 a.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe virtual briefing: “Diverse Voices Reporting From Ukraine,” with Oz Katerji, freelance conflict journalist; Asami Terajima, journalist at the Kyiv Independent; and Olga Tokariuk, independent journalist based in Ukraine and non-resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://ushr.webex.com/webappng/sites/ushr/meeting/register
10:30 a.m — Palo Alto Networks Joint Service Academy Cybersecurity Summit: “The Role of Cyber in Hybrid Warfare and Great Power Competition/Conflict,” with Retired Lt. Gen. B.J. Shwedo, director, U.S. Air Force Academy Institute for Future Conflict; Bruce Byrd, executive vice president and general counsel; Retired Vice Adm. T.J .White, former commander, U.S. Fleet Cyber Command and commander, U.S. Tenth Fleet and member of Palo Alto Networks Public Sector Council; Lt. Gen. Stephen Fogarty, commanding general, U.S. Army Cyber Command; Rear Adm. Michael Ryan, commander, U.S. Coast Guard Cyber Command; Russ Meade, executive director, U.S. Marine Forces Cyberspace Command; Vice Adm. Ross Myers, commander, U.S. Fleet Cyber Command and commander, U.S. Tenth Fleet; Lt. Gen. Charles Moore, deputy commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Maj. Gen. William Hartman, commander, Cyber National Mission Force; Lt. General Robert Skinner , director Defense Information Systems Agency and the commander Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network https://register.paloaltonetworks.com/jsacyber
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual discussion on the role of the Total Army in supporting the U.S. Central Command and U.S. Army Central objectives in the Middle East, with Lt. Gen. Ronald Clark, commanding general of U.S. Army Central; and retired Lt. Gen. Leslie Smith, former inspector general of the Army https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report
12 p.m. — National Economists Club luncheon discussion with the Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. https://www.economicclub.org/events/he-marek-magierowski
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “One-Size-Fits-None: Overhauling Joint All-Domain Command and Control to Deliver Customized Solutions to the U.S. Military,” with Mark Lewis, director of the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies Institute; James Steward, department chief scientist for spectrum warfare systems at the Naval Surface Warfare Center’s Crane Division; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2104-virtual-event
THURSDAY | APRIL 21
5 a.m. — International Energy Agency virtual briefing on “how to save money, reduce reliance on Russian energy, support Ukraine and help the planet,” with European Commission Director-General for Energy Ditte Juul Jorgensen; and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol https://ieaorg.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion on “the role of grand strategy in advancing U.S. interests, today’s national security challenges, and a vision for the foreign policy of the next president,” with Matt Kroenig, professor at Georgetown University and deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum: with Peter Pry, executive director of Task Force on National and Homeland Security; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Defense One virtual forum on “Artificial Intelligence,” with Matt Turek, information innovation office program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, delivers remarks focusing on AI and national security; and Brett Vaughan, chief AI officer at the Navy https://events.nextgov.com/genius-machines-2022/
FRIDAY | APRIL 22
12:30 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “South Korea’s Presidential Election and Expectations of the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) Alliance,” with Mark Tokola, vice president of the Korean Economic Institute of America; and Celeste Arrington, professor at GWU https://calendar.gwu.edu/south-koreas-presidential-election
2 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Implications of the Conflict in Ukraine on the Middle East Security,” with Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program; Sina Azodi, visiting scholar at the GWU Institute for Middle East Studies; Nicole Grajewski, pre-doctoral research fellow at the Belfer Center’s International Security Program; and Negar Mortazavi, columnist at The Independent https://calendar.gwu.edu/implications-conflict-ukraine-middle-east-security
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I don’t believe the world, after we have seen what’s going on in Ukraine … We don’t believe the words. After escalation of Russia, we don’t believe our neighbors. We don’t believe all of this.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his CNN interview, in response to the question: “When the world says ‘never again,’ do they ever mean it?”
