Republicans are examining the future of the Iowa Straw Poll, a key early measure of support for GOP presidential contenders.
When members of the Iowa Republican Party central committee convene Saturday, they will decide whether the event, an institution in Republican presidential primaries since 1979, will continue — and what it will look like if it does.
Recent statements by key Iowa Republicans indicate the event probably will remain intact in some form. The decision as to what shape it will take, however, could have major implications for a slew of potential contenders, dark horses and front-runners alike.
The straw poll’s existential crisis dates to the last presidential election cycle, when Rep. Michele Bachmann, a flash-in-the-pan front-runner, won the contest. Although the poll itself would have no bearing on the pivotal Iowa Caucus held a few months later, the media lent credence to the result with extensive coverage. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who had invested heavily in the straw poll, dropped out of the race when he placed third.
But even in 2011, before the debate over the poll’s value had begun in earnest, four candidates decided not to campaign in Ames ahead of the poll, including Mitt Romney.
“I think the straw poll has outlived its usefulness,” Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad concluded in an interview with the Wall Street Journal in November 2012. “It has been a great fundraiser for the party, but I think its days are over.”
Opponents of the poll, including Branstad, have argued that the purportedly low-stakes contest actually gives an important, unearned advantage to lower-tier also-rans while damaging candidates who could win the nomination. Supporters, including many conservative activists, herald the event for giving a boost to lesser-known candidates who might otherwise be overlooked. In a wide primary field, as is expected for Republicans in this election cycle, the straw poll can be useful for weeding out weaker candidates.
Among the considerations facing Iowa Republicans, there also is this one: Will any candidates show up?
“I’ll be honest,” Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann told the Des Moines Register recently, “we want to have an event where we can attract all the candidates.”
Kaufmann did not respond to a request for further comment.
But one national Republican strategist with ties to Iowa predicted that, were the straw poll to be held again in the same format, some of the prominent GOP candidates would seriously consider skipping it.
That possibility has Iowa Republicans mulling alternatives to the classic format, in which candidates pay a base fee to participate, then bid for prime booth locations at the Iowa State University grounds where the poll is held. The campaigns bus in supporters, to whom the candidates serve food and deliver speeches. At the end, the small pool of activists who show up — 17,000 in 2011, the second-largest turnout ever for the poll — choose a victor.
Among the alternatives being discussed, a common thread is a desire to eliminate the “poll” element entirely.
Loras Schulte, who sits on the Iowa GOP central committee, said he plans to vote in favor of holding the straw poll again this year, but he would like to do away with the entry fee and instead welcome any potential candidates who wish to speak. A debate format is another idea that has gained some traction.
“This is a straw poll, this is nothing etched in stone,” Schulte said. “It’s just a snapshot of what activists in Iowa are thinking.”
