The first round of the two-step French presidential election is over. At 8 p.m. French time (2 p.m. Eastern Time), vote counting authorities released a representative sampling of counted results. Traditionally accurate, at least in terms of order of victor, the sampling suggests centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won with 23.7 percent. Nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen came second with 21.7 percent. Conservative Francois Fillon was virtually tied with Socialist Jean-Luc Melenchon at 19.5 percent.
Assuming these results hold, the battle now narrows.
As the two top finishers, Macron and Le Pen advance to a May 7 runoff. But with sustained polling showing Macron 25-30 percentage points ahead of Le Pen, he is the firm favorite. A centrist, Macron is expected to attract Fillon supporters and liberals who detest Le Pen.
Yet Macron’s strength is about more than negative perceptions of Le Pen. It’s also a function of Macron’s relative appeal in economics. Promising to shake up France’s defective labor market, Macron wants to boost the private sector. And centering his campaign on national opportunity, Macron’s message is positive. Ben Haddad, a Hudson Institute fellow explains the core rationale for his Macron support. “Because he’s young, he has worked in the private sector, and will choose nuance and complexity when the marketing experts advise simplistic messaging.”
Le Pen’s argument is the exact opposite. She believes that France faces an existential crisis born of excessive immigration. And while many French voters strongly support action to reduce immigration, Le Pen has struggled to persuade voters that she can do so alongside advancing national unity. This means that even as an ardent protectionist (protectionism is popular with Melenchon’s socialists), Le Pen’s identity politics limit her potential second round support.
That matters, because while Le Pen’s runoff showing is significant, it is not revolutionary. Unless and until Le Pen comes within 10 points of Macron, she won’t deserve the “star campaigner” narrative that some, apparently including President Trump, have ascribed to her. Indeed, her campaign made some serious mistakes. While Le Pen has attempted to draw her National Front party away from the systemic racism of her father (its former leader), she still plays to the crowd. Le Pen recently denied France’s collusion with the Holocaust. She has also shown very little interest in addressing France’s deep social ills. Instead of confronting terrorist threats alongside expanding opportunity, for example, Le Pen has embraced sectarian division.
Crucially, unlike Trump’s 2016 campaign, Le Pen’s economic message has lacked national buy-in or compelling policy. Le Pen’s idea for reducing youth unemployment, for example, is more protectionism and regulation. Most French moderate voters recognize that such policies represent firefighting with gasoline.
Of course, it’s not over ’till it’s over. As we know, elections these days are inherently unpredictable. For one, France continues to face a major threat of terrorist attack. And were an incident to occur before May 7, Le Pen might rise in the polls. But barring that, Macron is the favorite to become the next president of the Fifth Republic.
Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a foreign policy columnist for National Review, a domestic policy columnist for Opportunity Lives, a former panelist on The McLaughlin Group and a senior fellow at the Steamboat Institute.
