In my Washington Examiner column last wee, I pondered the question of whether Donald Trump could disrupt the general election as he did the Republican primaries. National polls have pretty consistently shown Trump trailing Hillary Clinton, by an average of 47-41 percent most recently. Polls in 2012 target states have also shown him trailing her on average.
These results are cast in some doubt by the just released Quinnipiac polls in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, states which together have 67 electoral votes. All were carried by Barack Obama in 2012; without them, he would have had only 265 electoral votes and Mitt Romney would have been elected president. Quinnipiac shows even races in Florida and Pennsylvania, with Clinton “ahead” 43-42 percent in both states, and a narrow lead, 43-39 percent, for Trump in Ohio.
These are striking findings, suggesting that Trump is more competitive than the national polling average indicates. All three states have seen the presidential candidates in action recently, before the March 15 primaries in Florida and Ohio and the April 26 primary in Pennsylvania.
Quinnipiac polls have tilted just a bit Repulican in this cycle, so readers may want to discount the results a bit. But they might also want to keep in mind that Trump’s percentages have tended to rise as the primary season went on — he never got as much as 50 percent up through April 5, then got more than 50 percent in the seven contests between April 19-May 3.
Keep in mind as well that these three states gave Hillary Clinton robust percentages against Bernie Sanders: 56 percent in Pennsylvania and Ohio, 64 percent in Florida.
One other factor that might be significant: The current Quinnipiac polls show higher percentages of undecided voters than in earlier polls conducted by other firms. This may just reflect different question wording or order, but it could also indicate that, with Trump now the presumptive Republican nominee and with both candidates carrying very high negatives, more voters are hesitant about making a choice.
Bottom Line: This may not be the slam dunk for Hillary Clinton that many people have assumed.
