Daily on Energy: US beating emissions forecasts while China lags

Published November 30, 2021 5:47pm ET



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US OUTPERFORMING OTHER TOP EMITTERS ON REDUCTIONS: The United States is outperforming emissions projections while the nearest major emitters are moving backward.

Philip Rossetti, resident senior fellow in energy at R Street, a free-market think tank, analyzed a series of the Energy Information Administration’s annual International Energy Outlooks, determining that No. 2 emitter the U.S. has made demonstrable progress on emissions in recent years, even while top global emitter China, No. 3 India, and No. 4 Russia have been emitting above projections.

The analysis notes that the United States emitted 1.22 gigatons of carbon dioxide less in 2020 than was projected, which occurred in the context of the societal disruptions caused by COVID-19.

Still, in 2019, the U.S. emitted 0.6 gigatons less than was projected for that year, with the EIA ascribing reductions to increased use of natural gas for electricity generation and industrial processes and an expansion of renewables.

By contrast, and even in the midst of the pandemic, China’s carbon dioxide emissions last year were 0.78 gigatons above projections. Relative to 2019’s projections, it emitted 1.1 gigatons more than expected.

At the same time, India’s CO2 emissions reached 0.08 gigatons over 2020 projected levels, and Russia’s were 0.25 above projections for last year.

“There’s no escaping the math, and the math is that China is now the world’s largest emitter,” Rossetti told Jeremy. “They have basically double the U.S.’ emissions. India and Russia are also major emitters, and they have not been making any progress whatsoever.”

Rossetti noted that despite progress on emissions among the U.S. and European nations, the latter of which collectively emitted under projections in 2019 and 2020, is being “offset” by higher-than-anticipated emissions from the likes of China, India, Russia.

“We’re not going to be able to just expect our own emissions abatement to be the driving force of global change, because developing nations are easily able to outpace any progress that we have in terms of their emissions,” Rossetti said.

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writer Jeremy Beaman (@jeremywbeaman). Email [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

OIL SLUMPS ON OMICRON FEARS: Oil prices slipped along with stocks this morning as fears rose about the omicron variant. In particular, markets reacted negatively to comments from Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel that the existing vaccines may be less effective against the variant.

“All the scientists I’ve talked to . . . are like, ‘This is not going to be good,’” Bancel said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate fell more than 2% to below $72 and $69 a barrel, respectively.

SENATE GOP STALLS NDAA OVER NORD STREAM 2: Senate Republicans blocked the annual National Defense Authorization Act yesterday as they bucked Democratic leadership for not allowing consideration of various Republican amendments, including one that would impose sanctions in connection to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the Washington Examiner’s Susan Ferrechio reports.

Republican hopes of punishing the pipeline operator and restricting what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “encroachment over Europe” via the pipeline run contrary to President Joe Biden‘s approach, as his reversal of sanctions has been pitched by the administration as a means of supporting diplomacy with Germany and Russia.

HOCHSTEIN: BIDEN MAY OPEN SPR AGAIN: Amos Hochstein, the senior energy security adviser at the State Department, said yesterday that Biden is prepared to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve again to affect prices if necessary.

Hochstein said the 50 million barrel announcement last week was among a series of tools the administration had to work with and that it “will be available again” if need be.

BATTERY GAINS MEANS EV PRICES WITHIN A FEW YEARS OF GAS-POWERED: Prices for lithium-ion battery packs have fallen by 6% this year over last from $140 per kilowatt-hour to $132 per kilowatt-hour, continuing a promising trend for electric vehicles, a new analysis from researchers with Bloomberg NEF shows.

Overall, battery pack prices have fallen 89% since 2010, when they stood above $1,200 per kilowatt-hour. At this rate, the analysis predicts that average prices should fall below $100 per kilowatt-hour by 2024.

“It is at around this price point that automakers should be able to produce and sell mass-market EVs at the same price (and with the same margin) as comparable internal combustion vehicles in some markets,” the analysis reads, although it also qualifies that high prices for raw materials and current supply chain constraints may stunt the rate of change and even send prices back upwards in the near-term.

IEA CHIEF POINTS FINGER AT ENERGY PRODUCERS FOR HIGH PRICES: International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol ascribed some blame for high energy prices globally to “the deliberate policies of energy producers,” dismissing the notion that nations’ transitions to renewable and other carbon-free energy sources have been a causal factor for the price hike, Bloomberg reports.

The Rundown

Wall Street Journal America’s power plants are low on coal

Associated Press Phoenix on cusp of breaking November heat record set in 1949

Bloomberg Global economy can grow if world warms less than 1.5°c, study says

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | DEC. 1

9:45 a.m. 406 Dirksen The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold a business meeting to consider nominations for EPA and the Southeast Crescent Regional Commission. The meeting will be followed by an oversight hearing on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

THURSDAY | DEC. 2

10 a.m. 366 Dirksen The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will hold a hearing to consider pending legislation.