Senate Republican leaders are worried that they have another Pat Roberts on their hands.
In 2014, the NRSC, the GOP’s Senate campaign committee, spent precious resources rescuing the Kansas Republican from near disaster in what should have been an easy re-election victory in a reliably red state. They’re worried that Sen. John Boozman might force the party into the same situation next year in Arkansas.
That’s because Boozman has done little to prepare for 2016, despite facing a challenge from Democrat Connor Eldridge, who is positioning himself as a moderate and has millions in family money at his disposal. Boozman raised a paltry $359,000 in the third quarter, and has yet to field a campaign team. Eldridge raised more than $400,000 during the opening three weeks of his candidacy.
“My problem has been that I’ve been in a situation where nobody really thought I had a serious race or could have a serious race because of the fact that I was able to defeat my last opponent well — I’ve won several elections in Arkansas,” Boozman told the Washington Examiner on Thursday. “It’s difficult when nobody thinks you’re vulnerable, with all of these other races that are going on in the country.”
Top Senate Republicans don’t think that’s the problem. They believe Boozman could have — and should have — moved expeditiously this year to raise a few million dollars and deploy a campaign team in state. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told his members several months ago to prepare early and take nothing for granted. Senior Senate Republicans are purposely publicizing their concerns about Boozman through intermediaries, hoping that it motivates him to step things up.
CNN’s Manu Raju reported Thursday that McConnell has delivered a stern warning to Boozman about his lack of readiness; the majority leader is personally taking the lead in helping the Arkansan raise money. The NRSC is threatening not to invest in Boozman if he gets in trouble, according to CNN. But history suggests the committee wouldn’t write Boozman off, which is why senior Republicans are trying to address their concerns now.
“You have to do the blocking and tackling this year — just raise a couple million bucks and you’ll be fine. And, he just doesn’t do it,” one national Republican insider lamented. Said another top Republican strategist: “Their work ethic has been embarrassing.” Boozman was sitting on $1.1 million in cash on hand, as of Sept. 30.
Kansas’ Roberts and Arkansas’ Boozman aren’t perfect comparisons.
Roberts had to fight through a tough primary; Boozman isn’t expected to have one. Roberts ended up facing an independent candidate in the general election after national Democrats urged their own nominee to drop out of the race (he did.) And the Sunflower State, though solidly Republican, has significant pockets of moderates and Democrats in eastern Kansas’ highly populated Kansas City suburbs. Arkansas is more culturally conservative and Eldridge is a Democrat.
But Roberts entered his re-election bid amid voter dissatisfaction, and a new poll pegged Boozman’s job approval rating at just 38 percent. Granted, only 18 percent disapproved, with 44 percent expressing no opinion. Another similarity is money. Roberts had to contend with personally wealthy Greg Orman. Boozman could run into trouble if Eldridge’s family decides to open the spigot for his candidacy. Roberts ultimately prevailed after the NRSC took control of his campaign.
A Republican operative working in Arkansas said he doesn’t expect Boozman to lose.
The state continues to trend Republican, and just last year, now-Sen. Tom Cotton, a Republican, ousted Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by double digits, even though polling showed a close race all the way through. But this local GOP insider drew comparisons to the Roberts-Orman race, saying that the political atmosphere is too volatile for Boozman to presume re-election against a Democrat who can command resources and might entice national Democrats to invest additional money.
“I can’t say definitively that he doesn’t” have a campaign operation,” the Arkansas GOP insider said. “But I have not witnessed any.”
On Thursday, the Democratic National Senatorial Committee endorsed Eldridge. “From working on his family’s farm to protecting Arkansans as U.S. Attorney, Conner Eldridge knows how to fight for Arkansas and will do exactly that once elected to the Senate,” committee Chairman Jon Tester, D-Mont., said in a statement.
National Democrats have no plans to invest in Arkansas at present. The DSCC is targeting Republican-held seats in more fertile territory: Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The committee also is defending Democratic-held seats in Colorado and Nevada. All of those seats offer Democrats a potential path to the net-five seat pickup they need to recapture the majority.
But with Kentucky completely off the table after the GOP’s blowout win there in off-year state elections, Democrats are monitoring Arkansas as a potential opportunity to expand the map should political conditions break the party’s way in 2016. In Eldridge, they believe there is potential. He’s 38, has moved to distance himself from President Obama on some key issues and is attempting to contrast himself with Boozman by painting himself as a political outsider.
Eldridge is a former federal prosecutor who was appointed by Obama.
“He impressed with his first three weeks of fundraising,” one national Democratic insider said. “You have to have boards in the water to catch a wave.”
