‘AN ACT OF SABOTAGE’: For the second time in just over a week, Russian military facilities in occupied Crimea were destroyed by powerful explosions, which are said to be the work of elite Ukrainian commandos aided by local resistance fighters.
Tuesday’s targets included an ammunition depot near Dzhankoi in northern Crimea, where a nearby railway and electricity sub-station were also damaged, and an air base in Gvardeyskoye in central Crimea.
The Russian Defense Ministry called the attacks “an act of sabotage,” and — as in the case of last week’s attack on a Russian air base on the Black Sea — Ukraine did not publically claim credit for the attack. But Ukrainian officials speaking to the Washington Post and the New York Times said a special forces team was operating behind enemy lines. A senior Ukrainian official told the Times that an “elite Ukrainian military unit” was responsible for the blasts.
DISRUPTING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS: The explosions have disrupted Russian supply lines and prompted a civilian exodus from parts of Crimea, which is a popular summer destination for Russian tourists.
“Dzhankoi and Gvardeyskoye are home to two of the most important Russian military airfields in Crimea. Dzhankoi is also a key road and rail junction that plays an important role in supplying Russia’s operations in southern Ukraine,” said the British Defense Ministry on Twitter. “Russian commanders will highly likely be increasingly concerned with the apparent deterioration in security across Crimea, which functions as rear base area for the occupation.”
“These explosions both caused significant damage to Russian resources and seriously disrupted Russian logistics,” said the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War in its latest update. “Russian forces have used Dzhankoi as a railway hub for transporting troops and equipment to occupied settlements in southern Zaporizhia Oblast, including Melitopol.”
ZELENSKY WARNS ‘BE VERY CAREFUL’: In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated the guerrilla tactics would continue going forward.
“Every day and every night we see new reports of explosions in the territory temporarily occupied by the occupiers. I am now asking all our people in Crimea, in other regions in the south of the country, in the occupied areas of Donbas, in the Kharkiv region to be very careful,” Zelensky said in his opening comments. “Please do not approach the military objects of the Russian army and all those places where they store ammunition and equipment, where they keep their headquarters.”
“And I want to thank all Ukrainians who help our Armed Forces, our intelligence, our special services weaken the army of the occupiers. This is a significant advantage of Ukraine,” he said. “The destruction of the occupiers’ logistics, their ammunition, military and other equipment, command posts saves the lives of our people.”
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NORTH KOREA MISSILE TEST: North Korea fired two cruise missiles into the sea off its western coast today. Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles are not banned by U.N. resolutions, but the test firing is seen as a signal Pyongyang is not interested in reducing tension on the Korean Peninsula.
The latest missile firing, the 18th of the year, came as newly-elected South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol held a press conference marking his 100th day in office and as the U.S. and South Korea prepare to resume large-scale military exercises that had been put on hold in 2018 by former President Donald Trump in a failed bid to secure a nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
In a speech two days ago, Yoon outlined what he called an “audacious initiative,” an offer to provide economic assistance if the North abandons its nuclear weapons program, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
NORTH KOREA LAUNCHES TWO CRUISE MISSILES: REPORTS
ROUTINE MINUTEMAN TEST CONDUCTED: The routine test of a U.S. Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, which was postponed to avoid any miscalculation by Beijing as tensions rose over Taiwan, was conducted with little fanfare yesterday.
The unarmed ICBM, equipped with a test reentry vehicle, was launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, and fell into the sea 4,200 miles away near the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands.
The test, one of hundreds regularly conducted to verify the aging Cold War-era Minuteman missiles still work, was postponed by the Pentagon during the time House Speaker Nancy Pelosi led a congressional delegation to Taiwan, infuriating China.
“This test launch is part of routine and periodic activities intended to demonstrate that the United States’ nuclear deterrent is safe, secure, reliable and effective,” said the Air Force Global Strike Command in a statement. “This test is not the result of current world events.
The Minuteman missiles are set to be replaced by a new generation of ICBMs dubbed LG-35A Sentinel, which will come on line in the mid-2030s
AIR FORCE CONDUCTS TEST OF NUCLEAR-CAPABLE MISSILE
FEAR OF TRUMP HOLDING UP IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL: The negotiation is supposed to be over, and the text of an agreement that would bring Iran back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal has been finalized, but now Iran has one more demand.
From the beginning, Iran wanted a guarantee that if it abides by the terms of the original agreement, no future American president will rip it up the way Donald Trump did in 2018.
The U.S. side has said such a guarantee is impossible, especially with the possibility that Trump could return to office in 2025. So now, according to a report on CNN, the Iranians want an escape clause that would lessen the pain if the next president pulls out again.
“The main issue facing the revival of the deal is the guarantees requested from the Iranian side ensuring Iran will be compensated in case future US administrations decide to withdraw again from the deal,” a regional diplomat told CNN on Tuesday.
An adviser to the Iranian negotiating team, Mohammad Marandi, told CNN that Iran is looking for guarantees that if a future U.S. administration withdraws from the deal, it will “have to pay a price.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: North Korea launches two cruise missiles: Reports
Washington Examiner: Air Force conducts test of nuclear-capable missile
Washington Examiner: WATCH: Robot dog with rocket launcher makes debut in Russia
Washington Examiner: Trump spy chief rejects DOJ argument on keeping Mar-a-Lago affidavit secret
Wall Street Journal: Chinese Ambassador Accuses Washington of Exacerbating Tensions
Defense One: China’s New Ambassador Warns US Has ‘Gone Too Far’ Over Taiwan
Washington Times: U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Warns About Chinese Nuclear Buildup
AP: South Korean leader: Seoul won’t seek own nuclear deterrent
Reuters: S.Korea President Says Any Talks With N.Korea Should Be More Than Show
Stars and Stripes: Missile-Defense Exercise Off Hawaiian Island Includes First Live-Fire Intercept
USNI News: U.S. Joins South Korea, Australia, Japan, Canada For Missile Defense Exercise Following RIMPAC
Wall Street Journal: Crimea Blasts Are Latest Sign Of Russia’s War Vulnerabilities
Washington Post: Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion
Washington Post: Five takeaways from The Post’s examination of the road to war in Ukraine
AP: Ukrainians flee grim life in Russian-occupied Kherson
AP: Russia warns Britain against planned spy plane overflight
Breaking Defense: Did Israel Send A Message To Russia About Iranian Ties With Latest Strike In Syria?
Air Force Magazine: ‘Wildly Successful‘ Skyborg Will Become Program of Record but Won’t Stop Developing S&T
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Official: We‘re ‘Starting to Lose Our Lead’ in Propulsion
USA Today: ‘A Post-Retirement Sweetener For Military Brass’? Pentagon Defends Mentor Program Amid Fresh Scrutiny
AP: Dueling views remain a year after Afghan pullout
USNI News: Navy Training Jet Crashes in Texas, Pilot Safely Ejects
The Cipher Brief: What did China Gain from Taiwan Exercises?
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 17
8:50 a.m. 400 Courthouse Square, Alexandria — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement two-day Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems Summit,” with Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, commander of Marine Corps Combat Development Command, delivering keynote address on “The Evolving Threat Environment and Staying Ahead of the Adversary” https://www.idga.org/events-counteruas-usa
10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: “From Fist Bumps to Missile Fire: One Month since President Biden’s Middle East Trip,” with Andrea Stricker, nonproliferation and biodefense program deputy director and research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Michael Doran, senior fellow and director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; Jonathan Schachter, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute; and Robert Greenway, adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2140-from-fist-bumps-to-missile-fire
10:30 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — National Council of Resistance of Iran – U.S. Representative Office conference: “Tehran’s nuclear agenda on the 20th anniversary of Natanz revelation,” with former Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.; former White House National Security Adviser John Bolton; former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph; former International Atomic Energy Agency Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen; former European Command Deputy Commander Gen. Chuck Wald; James Rosen, chief White House correspondent at Newsmax; Soona Samsami, U.S. representative at NCRI; and Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the NCRI Washington Office RSVP at [email protected]
THURSDAY | AUGUST 18
8:50 a.m. 400 Courthouse Square, Alexandria — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems Summit, with Army Col. Tony Behrens, deputy director of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense Organization https://www.idga.org/events-counteruas-usa
10:15 a.m. Colorado Springs, Colorado — National Defense Industrial Association 2022 Space Warfighting Integration Forum with opening keynote remarks from Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander U.S. Space Command. https://www.ndia.org/events
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments webinar: “China’s Strategic Choices,” and accompanying report, China’s Strategic Choices: A New Tool for Assessing the PLA’s Modernization,with retired Adm. Philip Davidson, former commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Bosnia Herzegovina in Crisis,” with former Bosnia Herzegovina Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Zlatko Lagumdzija https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
11 a.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes welcome Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah to the Pentagon
2:30 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Cato Institute book discussion: “America’s Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition,” with author Ali Wyne, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group; Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; and Eric Gomez, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute https://www.cato.org/events/americas-great-power-opportunity
MONDAY | AUGUST 22
4 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute in-person book forum event: “A New Approach to US-China Relations,” with Aaron Friedberg, nonresident senior fellow, AEI and author of Getting China Wrong; and Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-new-approach-to-us-china
TUESDAY | AUGUST 23
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “Army Counter-Drone Efforts,” with Maj. Gen. Sean Gainey, director, Joint Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office and director of fires in the office of the deputy Army chief of staff for operations. Register at https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/USA-Noon-Report
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 24
10 a.m. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace virtual Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum, with Rear Adm. Scott Pappano, program executive officer, strategic submarines https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1:00 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual and in-person event: “The Future of Army Vertical Lift,” with Maj. Gen. Walter Rugen, director, Future Vertical Lift Cross Functional Team, U.S. Army Futures Command; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and senior fellow, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/future-army-vertical-lift
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The U.S. side has done too much and going too far in this region … I do call on our American colleagues to refrain, to exercise restraint, not to do anything to escalate the tension. So if there’s any moves damaging China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, so China will respond. China will respond.”
China’s ambassador to Washington Qin Gang, speaking to a small group of reporters about recent U.S. warships transiting the Taiwan Strait, as reported by Bloomberg.
