Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut are the two of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats facing re-election in 2010 and spent last week’s Memorial Day recess trying to shore up support at home and courting celebrity donors in Beverly Hills.
It highlights the challenge for Dodd and Specter, who return to Washington this week to face divisive issues such as labor, global warming, health care and a new Supreme Court nominee. It’s a high-wire act for two formerly entrenched members not used to having to hustle.
Dodd is particularly vulnerable. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found Dodd trailing former GOP Rep. Rob Simmons 45 percent to 39 percent and his unfavorability ratings top 50 percent.
Poll director Douglas Schwartz told The Examiner that though Dodd has closed the gap with Simmons by 10 percentage points since early April, his re-election prospects remain in serious jeopardy.
“Historically, I have not seen someone this low come back and win, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen,” he said.
Schwartz said Dodd gained ground with voters in his state after playing a key roll in passing legislation to regulate the credit card industry. Dodd has also been making the rounds in his state in what many are calling a rehabilitation tour.
“Because Connecticut is a Democratic state, you can’t count him out,” Schwartz said.
Specter’s prospects, meanwhile, got a little worse with the news that Rep. Joe Sestak would challenge him in a Democratic primary, though poll numbers show Specter leading Sestak 50 percent to 21 percent.
More troubling for Specter, the Quinnipiac poll also showed likely Republican nominee Rep. Pat Toomey gaining on Specter, closing a 20-point gap in March to just 9 points this month.
There are likely four Democratic seats in jeopardy, but at least five Republican seats up for grabs, including those that will be vacated by Sen. Kit Bond of Missouri, Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio and Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire.
In Missouri, likely GOP nominee Rep. Roy Blunt has lagged behind Democratic front-runner Robin Carnahan in both fundraising and polling — by almost 10 points in some surveys. In Ohio, Republican Rep. Rob Portman is faring better. With a fundraising and polling advantage over both Democrats fighting it out in a primary battle, Portman’s performance has encouraged Republicans.
In New Hampshire, where the GOP has yet to field a strong candidate to challenge Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, Republicans are hoping former Sen. John Sununu, who was unseated in the 2008 election, jumps in. A March poll found Hodes leading Sununu 42 percent to 36 percent, with 22 percent undecided.
“Republicans have their work cut out for them in this state,” said University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala. “But the next election in New Hampshire will not be about George Bush, and this is an immense relief to Republicans. It could be about a stagnating economy and enormous deficits.”
