There are two key takeaways from state Sen. Leah Vukmir’s Tuesday victory over Kevin Nicholson in the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary: First, money isn’t everything. Second, the Badger State’s Republican Party machine is even more powerful than people realized.
Nicholson both outraised and outspent Vukmir by roughly $1.5 million dollars. He had a major advantage in outside spending, too. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, outside groups spent $7.5 million supporting Nicholson and $1 million opposing him, compared with $1.5 million spent in support of Vukmir and $2.4 million spent opposing her.
But Vukmir easily won the state party’s endorsement in May, giving her full access to the Wisconsin GOP’s infrastructure. As her win proved on Tuesday, that’s a valuable treasure — perhaps even beyond what people already realized. In the near-decade since Gov. Scott Walker took office, Republicans have taken over both chambers of the state legislature, beat back the Walker recall, re-elected him, re-elected Sen. Ron Johnson, and elected the first Republican president since 1984. With the exception of Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s win over former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson in 2012, it’s been an incredible winning streak for the Wisconsin GOP.
Given the results on Tuesday, the polling in the race wasn’t very helpful (many voters seem to have remained undecided until late in the game). But Vukmir really started closing the gap after securing the party’s endorsement. And given Nicholson’s cash advantage, that was an uphill climb.
This is all interesting because Nicholson cast himself in the role of a Trump-era political outsider. (Trump is popular with Wisconsin Republicans now, but did lose the primary by a wide margin to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.) Even with that potent messaging, a well-run campaign, and his financial advantage, Vukmir was able to come out on top with the state party’s support.
The win proved a central predication of Vukmir’s campaign, that far from being out-of-touch, Wisconsin’s GOP “insiders” work hand-in-glove with the state’s grassroots army. She was endorsed by most of Wisconsin’s leading Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., Reince Preibus, Reps. Sean Duffy and Jim Sensenbrenner, and more. Walker and Johnson remained neutral, though Walker’s wife endorsed Vukmir early and his son worked on her campaign. In the time of Trump, that could be a liability in some states, and Nicholson was hoping Wisconsin would be one of them. That didn’t turn out to be the case.
Where Nicholson sought to highlight Vukmir’s “establishment” status, Vukmir argued she had experience and worked with a team beloved of Wisconsin Republican voters. Nicholson may or may not have succeeded at persuading voters that she was part of the establishment, but even in this era of anti-establishment sentiments, that seems to have worked to her advantage.
