Republican Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey was allegedly reluctant to appoint then-Rep. Martha McSally to the Senate at the end of 2018, and now his fears over whether the Republican could hold onto the late Sen. John McCain’s seat two years later are being realized.
Now-Sen. McSally is trailing Democratic challenger Mark Kelly by 13 percentage points, with the retired astronaut and former Navy captain extending his lead over the incumbent by four points since April, according to an OH Predictive Insights poll released Tuesday.
Last month, Kelly, the husband of ex-Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords who was shot in Tuscon in 2011, earned 51% support from likely voters to McSally’s 42%. In May, Kelly holds steady, his base augmented by independents, while McSally slips to 38% and 10% of respondents remain undecided. Kelly has also expanded his advantage in the Republican stronghold of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous region taking in Phoenix, by 13 points over the past year.
Ducey appointed McSally, herself a former colonel in the Air Force, to the Senate in December 2018 after she lost her tight Senate race to then-House colleague Kyrsten Sinema, Arizona’s first Democratic senator in more than two decades. Former Republican Sen. Jon Kyl had been temporarily filling in since McCain’s death that August.
Facing pressure from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other key party figures eager for more Republican women to join the chamber, he reportedly ignored his doubts about her electability, given her issues with fundraising and her perceived closeness to President Trump.
Tuesday’s poll also provided a snapshot of the presidential race, putting presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ahead of Trump, 50%-43%. Biden’s campaign is hoping to flip Arizona in what would be the first time a Democrat has won the state since Bill Clinton in 1996. Trump clinched Arizona in 2016 by 3.5 points.
Tuesday’s research represents a slight decline for Biden, the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator. He slides to 50% from 52% last month, but he had climbed in April from 49% in March. Meanwhile, Trump has been consistently notching up 43% during the same time frame.
OH Predictive Insights surveyed 600 likely voters via the phone from May 9 to May 11 for results. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
