The summer edition Harvard IOP poll released on Thursday brings bad news for both major candidates among voters 18-29 years old. “One-third of America’s 18- to 29- year-olds call for a ‘reset button’ for Washington,” says the press release in light of the grim results.
Among likely voters, 45 percent favor Hillary Clinton, while 23 percent favor Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson enjoys 13 percent support, which is less than the 19 percent who are undecided. Still, Johnson’s supporters are taking away from Hillary’s lead.
While Hillary may have a lead among young people, it is significant that only 47 percent of those 18-29 plan on “definitely” voting in November. It is a commonly held view, from across the political spectrum that Hillary’s chances could be in trouble if young people stay home.
Another issue for her is that her numbers have gotten worse since the poll’s spring edition. In accounting for just Hillary and Trump, she enjoyed a stronger lead, at 61 percent to his 25 percent support. Fourteen percent were undecided. The July poll accounting for just the two has her at 54 percent compared to Trump’s 28 percent with 18 percent undecided.
There’s also the favorability factor. Trump has a problem with his unfavorable rating, with 74 percent view him this way and 18 percent viewing him favorably, which “is essentially unchanged since April.” Hillary has greater favorability, but it’s been dropping. Thirty-one percent view her favorably, while 60 percent see her as unfavorable. Her favorable rating dropped 6 points while her unfavorable rating increased 7 points.
While Trump has much ground to make up, he at least enjoys enthusiasm from his supporters. Thirty-six percent said they were “very enthusiastic” and 33 percent said they were “somewhat enthusiastic.” Twenty-one percent of Hillary supporters said they were “very enthusiastic” and 49 percent said they were “somewhat enthusiastic.”
Other recent polls have not been so kind to Hillary’s lead among young people, including when it comes to swing states.
Young people are clearly beginning to take another look at Hillary and re-considering their options. When young voters have low voter turnouts to begin with, she will need more than “somewhat enthusiastic” supporters, otherwise she could have something to worry about.
