Suffolk University has a new poll out, including a question on Republican voter preferences for the 2024 presidential election, and while it is noteworthy that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is within 9 points of former President Donald Trump at 43%-34%, what is more striking is how little support the other possible candidates get.
Vice President Mike Pence is at 7%, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WV) at 3%, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 1%.
Contrast DeSantis’s strong second-place rank to where Republicans were at this point in August 2015. Trump was in front at 22%, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was at 13%, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 12%, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 7%, Ben Carson at 6%, Mike Huckabee at 6%, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 5%.
There was no clear alternative to Trump.
And it would stay that way to the very end. Heading into the Florida primary, Trump was still only at 32%, Cruz was at 26%, Rubio was at 19%, and Kasich was at 18%. Even when Rubio dropped out after Florida, Trump only managed 41% to Cruz’s 28% and Kasich’s 20%.
It is still early. It is possible some strong candidates will still get in, including Sens. Tom Cotton (R-AR), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Josh Hawley (R-MO).
But DeSantis does seem to be consolidating the non-Trump vote in a way no other candidate came close to doing in 2016. He is even beating Trump head-to-head in New Hampshire and Florida already.
If Trump and DeSantis do both run, Trump is going to be in for a primary fight far different than the one he survived in 2016.
