Bad News All Around

Question 1 (recalling Davis)

Question 2 (choosing a successor)

One thing that’s obvious: Davis isn’t finished, but with only four weeks left until the vote, the death watch soon begins. The governor trimmed only 6 points off last months’ 21-point deficit despite some favorable conditions the past couple of weeks: a televised statewide address; 30 minutes alone in the debate spotlight last week; saturating the airwaves with anti-recall ads featuring Senator Dianne Feinstein (while the Field Poll was contacting likely voters), plus the occasional gaffes by Arnold and Cruz. If Davis can’t flourish as the safe alternative in that environment, it’s hard to see how he rallies the faithful over the next 30 days.

As for the second half of the ballot, the Field Poll once again is a field day for Republican angst. In the August survey, conservative Bill Simon garnered 8 percent support. That was before he dropped out of the race. In a field absent Simon, McClintock received only a 4 percent “surge”, compared to 3 percent bump for Arnold and no movement for Ueberroth. That doesn’t bode well for McClintock, as it suggests conservative Republicans, rather than leaving Simon en masse for the conservative senator, are split between principled and pragmatic courses. In their hearts, they want Tom. In their minds, they want to win–and that road leads to Arnold.

Then again, it’s not as if Schwarzenegger can gloat after reading these numbers. The good news for the Terminator: Recall is halfway over and he’s still in a position to win even though his campaign has underperformed these past four weeks. Besides, Bustamante isn’t running away with the race: the lieutenant governor is polling at 30 percent in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans, 45 percent to 35 percent (One conspiracy theory making the rounds is that Davis will go negative on Bustamante in the closing days of the election to bring Democrats back into the “no on recall” camp).

Think of it as Tiger Woods trailing after 36 holes, yet high enough on the leader board to win–if he makes his shots. Since jumping into the race, Arnold’s spent days in seclusion, in policy study hall. Only recently has he begun to campaign in public, looking like someone who wants the job. A friend of mine who’s known Schwarzenegger for years likens his recall effort to the candidate’s past approach to winning bodybuilding competitions. As he sees it, Arnold’s spent the past four weeks holed up, working on his physique. Now that the candidate is ready to show his new muscles, the theory goes, Arnold wins a pose-off over Bustamante.

On Monday, Schwarzenegger struck a pose in deepest Orange County, on the campus of Chapman University (in 2002, Arnold received an honorary degree from the school). The candidate hosted a town hall meeting with local Republicans and business owners, plus students from the conservative campus. Arnold talked policy–suggesting he could squeeze more money out of Washington. And he took a swipe at recall’s target, saying of his honorary degree: “I’m not really a doctor . . . but then again the reality of it is Gray Davis isn’t really a governor.”

And while the film star was in Southern California, his campaign unveiled another star: Maria Shriver, who stumped for her husband in Sacramento at a voter registration rally, her first solo appearance on the campaign trail. It’s the moment the recall press have craved, getting to see how Maria handles questions about Arnold’s past and how Republican strategists utilize her. And it’s the moment the other candidates have dreaded: in this election, Maria Shriver is second only to her husband as a celebrity and media magnet. Like Arnold, she can wander into any media market anywhere in California and keep the cameras away from the rest of the field.

Of course, the Schwarzeneggers wish it were a smaller field–one without McClintock, in particular. Take the state senator out of the race, the newest Field Poll concludes, and Arnold leads Bustamante 33 percent to 31 percent. Any chance of this happening anytime soon? No way, says McClintock, who wants a showdown at this weekend’s party confab in Los Angeles: “I want to meet him face-to-face in front of the convention,” McClintock told reporters yesterday. “Let’s have a debate and see who’s the best man for the job. There’s no way I’m getting out of this, period.”

Bill Whalen is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he follows California and national politics.