Joe Biden leads President Trump by three points in Wisconsin according to a new poll of voters in one of the nation’s premier battleground states.
The survey, conducted by Marquette University Law School, found that 46% of Wisconsin voters say they would vote for the former vice president if the election were held today. Forty-three percent said the same about Trump, with 4% saying they’d vote for neither and another 4% saying they don’t know.
The margin of error of the poll, which asked 811 registered voters from May 3-7, was 4 percentage points.
Wisconsin is considered a key battleground state in the November presidential race. Trump won the state by less than a percentage point against Clinton in 2016. Wisconsin, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, helped Trump crack the “blue wall” of major industrialized states that voted for the Democratic nominee six straights times from 1992 to 2012.
Both sides are contesting Wisconsin heavily in the fall. Each party has been building up its get-out-the-vote infrastructure in Wisconsin for more than a year.
[Read more: Biden’s favorability among women falls after Tara Reade sexual assault allegation]
Marquette’s findings also show that Biden’s lead over Trump has changed little since their last poll in March. That study found 48% of voters backing Biden with 45% supporting the president.
Biden currently leads Trump 46%-38% among non-college educated women, a warning sign for the president’s reelection prospects. In 2016, exit polls had Trump winning those voters over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 16 percentage points.
Among voters aged 60 and over, Biden leads Trump 55%-37%. Voters aged 30-44 and 45-49 are the only demographics where Trump currently leads Biden in the Wisconsin poll.
“In 2016, according to exit polls, Trump won a substantial majority of voters who had a negative opinion of both Hillary Clinton and Trump,” wrote pollster Charlie Franklin. “In the four Marquette Law School polls conducted in 2020, a different pattern is apparent. Among those with a favorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, Trump receives 61 percent to Biden’s 27 percent. For voters with unfavorable views of both candidates, Biden receives 62 percent to 15 percent for Trump.”
A RealClearPolitics average of polls, weighted before the one released today, has Biden leading Trump by 2.7 points. At this point in the race in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was leading Trump by 12 points, according to a Republican pollster. A Marquette University survey conducted in June 2016 had Clinton leading by 9 points.
Voters appear to approve of Trump’s performance as president more than they’re willing to vote for him in November. Forty-seven percent of voters approve of his job performance, while 49% disapprove. In March, 48% approved and 49% disapproved.
When asked about Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, 44% approved. Those numbers mark a 7-point drop from March when 51% approved and 46% disapproved.
