The results of Virginia’s statewide elections are in, and nobody is really surprised. Democrats gained control of the State Senate and minimized the Republicans lead in the House of Delegates. They defeated two of the three targeted incumbent Republican senators in Northern Virginia: Former delegate Chap Petersen took down Jeannemarie Devolites Davis by nearly 5,000 votes, and George Barker beat Jay O’Brien by about 800 votes. The Democrats’ third Northern Virginia target, Ken Cuccinelli, currently has a 91-vote lead over his opponent Janet Oleszek, and a recount is expected. Elsewhere in Virginia, Democrat Ralph Northam defeated incumbent Republican D. Nick Rerras in Norfolk and Democrat John C. Miller defeated Tricia Stall in Tidewater. Although the upset has startling implications, it is no real surprise. Virginia – particularly Northern Virginia – has shown signs that it has been “bluing” since the election of Democratic Governor Mark Warner in 2001. And although Virginia has been consistently red in every presidential election since 1968, Northern Virginia favored John Kerry in 2004. This year, the state Democrats capitalized on national dislike of the GOP in general, and launched a fierce campaign to gain at least four senate seats. The senators elected Tuesday will hold those seats during the 2011 redistricting, and Democrats will now be able to draw more congressional districts in their favor and potentially make Virginia’s blue tint indigo. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis’s upset is particularly consequential: She represented much of the same district as her husband, Rep. Tom Davis, who has not yet decided if he will run for re-election in 2008. Davis recently announced that he would not seek retiring Republican Sen. John Warner’s seat in 2008 because he didn’t think he had much of a shot at winning. It is now clear that he will face a difficult race if he decides to run for re-election. Incumbency no longer means automatic electoral success, at least in Northern Virginia. It is certainly too early to call Virginia a blue state – the outcome of 2008 will tell us that. These trends favoring Democrats could reverse themselves in the next year, or Virginia could elect a Democrat to the White House. But Virginia certainly is a battleground state, and both parties have a rough fight ahead.
