Wisconsin governor Scott Walker leads his Democratic opponent Mary Burke 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the final Marquette University Law school poll. The results come as a surprise to many, as the last Marquette poll showed the race tied, and three other pollsters show the Wisconsin gubernatorial election to be a one-point race.
Mary Burke, a Madison school board member and former executive at her father’s bicycle corporation, started out the race largely unknown to Wisconsin voters. But over time, voters have had an increasingly negative view of her. The final Marquette poll shows Burke with a 10-point deficit in her favorable/unfavorable rating:
Among likely voters, 39% fav, 49% unfav on Burke, compared to three most recent polls of 41-39, 40-44, and 44-44. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 29, 2014
Meanwhile, Walker’s job approval rating has ticked up: 52 percent approve of his performance as governor, while 46 percent disapprove. By a 12-point margin, likely Wisconsin voters say their state is heading in the right direction. Just 42 percent of voters want to restore collective bargaining power that was taken away from government unions in 2011, while 52 percent of voters want to keep the law as it is.
Although it could be an outlier, the Marquette University Law poll is generally considered the best pollster in Wisconsin politics for its sound methodology and excellent track record. Walker won the June 2012 recall election by precisely the margin shown in that race’s final Marquette poll, and the pollster was within 1-point of the final presidential and senatorial races later that year.
