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GOVERNMENT’S LIGHTS FLICKER OFF, THEN ON AGAIN: On a typical workday, Pentagon workers begin to stream into the massive military headquarters in the 5 a.m. hour, including many junior officers who must be at their desks, coffee on, before their more senior supervisors and superior officers arrive. This morning many in uniform headed into work not knowing if their civilian coworkers would be showing up to help, or just be there long enough to sign papers to go home. The government shut down at midnight thanks to Republican Sen. Rand Paul’s one-man stand in which he held the floor to inveigh against the bipartisan budget deal he said borrows “$1 million a minute,” and spends so much money it endangers national security. But once Paul relinquished the floor, the budget deal, which is married to a six-week continuing resolution, quickly passed the Senate after 1 a.m. with wide bipartisan support on a vote of 71-28. The House, in session in the predawn hours, scrambled to pass the measure over the objections of both Freedom Caucus Republicans frustrated that the compromise will add $300 billion to the ballooning deficit, and disillusioned Democrats angered that it has no protection for immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children. When the House vote came at 5:30 a.m., Democrats sat back and watched as Republicans voted, before jumping in and pushing the bill across the finish line, 240-186, keeping the government open until March 23. Now, lawmakers will use that time to fill in the details of the two-year spending deal, whose broad outlines were agreed upon in today’s temporary spending measure. This agreement begins to rebuild and restore America’s military, said House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry in statement after the vote. “It passed because Members of both parties made our security and our service members a priority. Now we must make sure that Congress fulfills this promise to our military, that the Pentagon spends this money wisely, and that the era of using troops as leverage for political gain has ended.” NO DACA DEPORTATIONS FOR THE MILITARY: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon that he has an understanding with Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen that troops and veterans with honorable discharges will not be in jeopardy of deportation should the protections of the Delayed Action for Childhood Arrivals expire next month. And that would include DACA recipients who have signed up, but are still awaiting induction under the military’s Delayed Entry Program. Anyone “already signed up and waiting to go into boot camp, anyone on active duty, anyone in the active Reserves and anyone with an honorable discharge… will not be subject to any kind of deportation,” Mattis said. There are two exceptions: Anyone convicted of a serious felony, or already subject to a judge’s deportation order. MATTIS DEPLOYED TO SHUT DOWN SHUTDOWN TALK: In a meeting with Pentagon reporters yesterday, Mattis said he was summoned to the White House to help make the case for avoiding another shutdown. The command performance was unexpected, said Mattis, who offered a good-natured apology for stiffing the Pentagon press corps, which never gets a chance to grill him on camera. “I came off about noon from my fourth hearing on the Hill in over the last 36 hours. Raspy and everything, I had to go by the White House on another issue,” Mattis said, and next thing he knew he was shanghaied to appear in the briefing room. “And so kaboom, I was over there in front of the cameras after denying you that opportunity,” he told a large gaggle of reporters in the press pen. Mattis warned that a shutdown was the worst of all worlds, meaning troops can’t train, recruiters can’t recruit, planners can’t plan. “I cannot overstate the negative impact to our troops and families’ morale from all this budget uncertainty,” Mattis said as he endorsed the budget deal as one that “will ensure our military can defend our way life, preserve the promise of prosperity, and pass on the freedoms you and I enjoy to the next generation.” BUDGET ROLLOUT: Assuming the overnight government disruption didn’t delay the production of all the charts, graphs and briefing slides, the Pentagon is planning to unveil its budget request for fiscal 2019 on Monday. While it could take as much as six weeks to actually write the legislation agreed to in principle in the budget deal, we now have a much better grasp of the framework. Here are the numbers: Base defense caps:
Overseas contingency operations:
Total defense spending:
EXCLUSIVE — HERITAGE FY19 NDAA RECOMMENDATIONS: The Heritage Foundation will release its recommendations today for Congress’ next National Defense Authorization Act, a massive piece of legislation that will shape the military and its policies in 2019. We got an exclusive first look at the conservative think tank’s report, titled “The 2019 NDAA Must Continue to Rebuild the Military and Make It More Efficient,” and it sends a clear message for Congress: Go bigger. There’s reason to pay attention to what Heritage recommends. President Trump closely followed its recommendations when calling for a defense buildup while he was a candidate, and it continues to hold sway over the White House. Heritage recommends lawmakers fast-track rebuilding the military by negotiating a defense spending cap that is $17 billion higher than the $647 billion agreed to this morning, and by adding 26,500 troops in the coming year. “The main thrust of the proposal throughout the services is restoring readiness and getting our force to a point that it is a modern and ready force,” said Frederico Bartels, the policy analyst for defense budgeting at Heritage who edited the report. It is meant as a guide for lawmakers on the House and Senate armed services committees as they hold hearings and begin to build the next NDAA, which will likely begin to take form in a few months. The Heritage report is packed with recommendations for each of the services. Here are some key highlights: New defense cap: Heritage proposes $664 billion in base defense spending in 2019. “Sure, there might be little appetite now for re-litigating the issue in Congress, but that does not mean that it is not the right thing to do,” Bartels told us. More troops: Of the 26,500 new troops proposed by Heritage, the Army would grow the most, adding 9,500 soldiers. The Navy would add 6,000, the Air Force should add 8,000, and the Marine Corps 3,000. “We see the increased force structure as a way to combat that decreased readiness because you have more people to execute the same amount of tasks that they are given,” Bartels said. “For too long, we have asked our military to do more with less people. We need to reverse that trend.” Ships: Congress should fund 12 Navy ships, including two Virginia-class nuclear submarines, in the 2019 budget, Heritage recommends. That is five more than the Navy has planned and tracks closely with the 13 ships lawmakers authorized for this year. Aircraft: The Navy would get 18 more of its Lockheed Martin F-35Cs but the Air Force fleet would see the largest increase in the advanced fifth-generation fighter jets. The service was authorized by Congress to buy 56 of the aircraft this year but Heritage recommends a buy of 80 in the 2019 budget. The recommendation would speed up purchases of the F-35A variant and actually decrease the total number the service would acquire over the coming years, according to Bartels. “It’s an accelerated buy,” he said. Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: The budget vote in the House wrapped up just in time for the opening ceremonies for the Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Vice President Mike Pence is there, along with his wife and special guest Fred Warmbier, the father of Otto, the American college student who died at the hands of the North Korean government. Pence’s presence was somewhat overshadowed by the arrival of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s younger sister Kim Yo Jong, which was broadcast live on South Korea television. The 30-year-old Kim is the first member of the Kim dynasty to visit South Korea, and she is expected to meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. In an appearance with Moon, Pence said, “Allow me to just assure you and the people of South Korea that the United States of America will continue to stand shoulder-to-shoulder in our effort to bring maximum pressure to bear on North Korea until that time comes when they finally and permanently and irreversibly abandon their nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions.” BLOCKING THE PARADE: New legislation aims to throw a roadblock in the path of Trump’s plan for staging a military parade in the nation’s capital, after the prospect of tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue drew comparisons to North Korea and the former Soviet Union. The “Preparedness Before Parades Act,” introduced yesterday by Rep. Brad Schneider, would create rules that make such parades nearly impossible. “I have severe concerns about the cost, diversion of resources, and effect on readiness of a large-scale parade seemingly conceived only to please the whims of the president,” Schneider said in a statement. Under the bill, a “large-scale military parade” would require approval from the defense secretary and the municipal government where the event is planned. It could only proceed only if the Executive Office of the President paid at least 50 percent of parade costs. THE PARADE OPTIONS: Mattis refused to be drawn into the debate about the appropriateness of a chest-thumping show of military might. Asked if he had any misgivings about a grand military parade, he said, “I’m not paid for my feelings, I save those for my girlfriend.” “I will turn it over to the military guys who know how to do parades and we’ll put together options and we will work out everything from size to participation to cost,” Mattis said. “And when I get clear options, we will send those over to the White House.” Mattis did clear up one thing. The president, he said, would like the parade to be here in Washington, D.C. SYRIA’S ‘PERPLEXING’ BLUNDER: Mattis began his 30-minute drop-by briefing for reporters by pronouncing himself “perplexed” by the Wednesday attack on U.S. backed-fighters in eastern Syria by pro-Assad forces who were clearly overmatched, outgunned, and suffered a quick and humiliating defeat. “Why do I say it’s perplexing?” Mattis said. “I have no idea why they would attack there.” American warplanes called in by U.S. troops who are advising Syrian Democratic Forces, pounded the advancing force of about 300 troops with punishing airstrikes, destroying two tanks, most of their artillery, killing at least 100 fighters, and forcing the rest to beat a hasty retreat. Mattis says the U.S. counterattack was purely in self defense. “We are not getting engaged in the Syrian civil war. We are there to fight ISIS, that’s what those troops were doing, coordinating strikes against ISIS,” Mattis said. “Why they chose to initiate this attack, you’ll have to ask them. We don’t know.” At the State Department, spokeswoman Heather Nauert said, “We will use force if our troops are threatened, and that was clearly the case. … We are there also to stabilize the country so that the country, hopefully, can get through the Geneva process and to have elections and decide what they want to do with its future.” GRAHAM’S POTSHOT AT PAUL: Sen. Lindsey Graham chided fellow Republican Paul for suggesting that the U.S. withdraw troops from Afghanistan to save enough money to give service members a pay raise. “It appears ‘General’ @RandPaul is at it again. He just called for the immediate withdrawal of all forces from Afghanistan as a way to give the US military a pay raise. Fortunately, only ‘General’ Paul – and the Taliban — think that’s a good idea,” Graham said in a series of tweets Thursday. “These are serious and dangerous times. President @realDonaldTrump has chosen to listen and follow sound military advice in taking the gloves off when it comes to fighting radical Islam, particularly in Afghanistan,” Graham continued. “I wish Senator Paul would do the same. Last time we ignored Afghanistan we got 9/11. Nearly 3,000 lives lost and billions of dollars spent because we ignored Afghanistan. Never again.” NO JOKING MATTER: Included in the Pentagon’s latest anti-harassment policy is a prohibition against telling “offensive jokes,” which prompted questions at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing about what constitutes offensive as opposed to just unfunny or bad taste. Chief spokesperson Dana White could not give a definition, but said the services have two months to come up with rules to implement the new policy, which you can read here. “I don’t want to lose all sense of humor in the military,” said Mattis, who has been known to use colorful language in some of his troop talks. “There’s a rough good humor amongst soldiers, we all know that, but I have never seen rough good humor countenance or in any way frame something that’s disgusting, repellent or something like that.” “You have to adapt to your times,’ he said. The new policy says harassment may include, “offensive jokes, epithets, ridicule or mockery, insults or put-downs, displays of offensive objects or imagery, stereotyping, intimidating acts, veiled threats of violence, threatening or provoking remarks, racial or other slurs, derogatory remarks about a person’s accent, or displays of racially offensive symbols.” MATTIS’ IRAN DENIAL: Mattis yesterday also brushed off the latest sources’ account of a private conversation in which it was alleged he slow-rolled the president on possible military options to confront Iran. The following passage was included in a front-page profile in Thursday’s Washington Post. For weeks, Mattis had been resisting requests from the White House to provide military options for Iran. Now Trump made clear that he wanted the Pentagon to deliver a range of plans that included striking Iranian ballistic missile factories or hitting Iranian speedboats that routinely harassed U.S. Navy vessels. “Why can’t we sink them?” Trump would sometimes ask about the boats. National security adviser H.R. McMaster and his staff laid out the president’s request for Mattis in a conference call, but the defense secretary refused, according to several U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations. At that point, McMaster took Mattis off speakerphone, cleared his staff from the room and continued the conversation. “It was clear that the call was not going well,” one official said. In the weeks that followed, the options never arrived. Asked if the anecdote was accurate, Mattis said, “No, of course not. That’s not how I do business.” RUSSIAN HELP: Russia plans to implement a United Nations resolution barring the use of North Korean laborers by gradually cutting off their visas, rather than an immediate deportation, a senior government official announced. “No deportation as such is underway,” the Russian Interior Ministry’s Valentina Kazakova told lawmakers, according to state-run media. “In this particular case they are not responsible for any wrongdoing.” U.S. officials have made the case that North Korean laborers working overseas amount to slaves of the regime, which confiscates much of the money they send home to finance its illicit weapons program. The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution in December that demanded the workers return to their home country within two years, as part of a broader sanctions package designed to starve the regime of finances. “Those whose visas expire take their leave,” Kazakova said. “The U.N. Security Council’s resolution is being implemented.” THE RUNDOWN New York Times: Far From Winding Down, Syria’s War Escalates on Multiple Fronts Bloomberg: Trump to Seek 24 Boeing Super Hornets in Budget, Reversing Obama Reuters: U.S. not planning to contribute money at Iraq reconstruction conference – officials Wall Street Journal: In Somalia—or Afghanistan—Can Insurgent Defections Change a War’s Course? Washington Post: For U.S. troops in Afghanistan, new questions about where to be in combat Navy Times: China sends advanced fighter jets to South China Sea for first time USNI News: Panel: Military Wants Accelerated Buys for New Tech But at What Cost? New York Times: 2 of ISIS’s Infamous British Fighters Are Captured by Syrian Kurds Marine Corps Times: We asked, you voted: 89 percent said no to Trump’s military parade Defense News: Army Futures Command might be in a city War on the Rocks: The Destabilizing Dangers of U.S. Counterterrorism in the Sahel Stars and Stripes: Bagram hospital braces for more casualties as US intensifies Afghan War Defense One: US Army Now Holding Drills With Ground Robots That Shoot |
CalendarFRIDAY | FEB. 9 10 a.m. 740 15th St. NW. ‘Ultimate Deal’ or Ultimate Demise? Palestinian-Israeli Peace Under Trump. newamerica.org 11:30 a.m. Syrian Impasse: America Between Turkey and the Kurds. defenddemocracy.org 12 noon. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace. wilsoncenter.org 3:50 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. Book discussion of “Directorate S: America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan” with author Steve Coll. newamerica.org MONDAY | FEB. 12 9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Priorities Discussion with Matthew Donovan, Under Secretary of the Air Force. mitchellaerospacepower.org 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review: Continuity and change with David Trachtenberg, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. brookings.edu 2 p.m. Oversight and Accountability in U.S. Security Sector Assistance: Seeking Return on Investment with Rep. Adam Smith, Brig. Gen. Antonio Fletcher of U.S. Southern Command, and Adam Barker, a professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. csis.org 5 p.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. foreign.senate.gov TUESDAY | FEB. 13 9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A Kennan for Our Times: Celebrating the Legacy of George F. Kennan. wilsoncenter.org 9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Open session worldwide threats hearing with Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats; CIA Director Mike Pompeo; National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers; FBI Director Christopher Wray; Defense Intelligence Agency Director Robert Ashley; and National Geospatial Intelligence Agency Director Robert Cardillo. intelligence.senate.gov 12 noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Iraq’s Energy Potential: Opportunities and Challenges. atlanticcouncil.org 12:15 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Secession and Security: How States Handle Separatists in South Asia and Beyond. stimson.org 12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Containing Russia: How to Respond to Moscow’s Intervention in U.S. Democracy and Growing Geopolitical Challenge. cfr.org 2:30 p.m. Russell 222. Department of Defense’s role in Protecting Democratic Elections. armed-services.senate.gov 2:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Changing Patterns of Extremism and Terrorism in Pakistan. wilsoncenter.org WEDNESDAY | FEB. 14 7 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defense Roundtable Breakfast. ndia.org 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Surface Warfare Challenge: A Retrospective on Culture, Readiness, Maintenance, and Standards. csis.org 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. The Military and Security Challenges and Posture in the Indo-Pacific Region with Adm. Harry Harris, commander of U.S. Pacific Command. armedservices.house.gov 10:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Big Small Companies: How Size Matters in Defense Contracting. atlanticcouncil.org 1 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. National Security and the Korean Peninsula: Perspectives from a Defector, a Russian, and an Analyst. wilsoncenter.org 1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book discussion of “Boko Haram: The History of an African Jihadist Movement” with author Alexander Thurston. csis.org 2:30 p.m. Russell 222. Subcommittee Hearing on Current Readiness of U.S. Forces with Gen. James McConville, Army Vice Chief Of Staff; Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief Of Naval Operations; Gen. Glenn Walters, Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps; and Gen. Stephen Wilson, Vice Chief Of Staff of the Air Force. armed-services.senate.gov 3 p.m. Russell 232-A. Military and Civilian Personnel Programs and Military Family Readiness with Robert Wilkie, Under Secretary Of Defense For Personnel And Readiness. armed-services.senate.gov 3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Air Force Readiness Posture with Lt. Gen. Mark Nowland, Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations; Lt. Gen. Scott Rice, Director of the Air National Guard; and Maj. Gen. Derek Rydholm, Deputy to the Chief of the Air Force Reserve. armedservices.house.gov THURSDAY | FEB. 15 8 a.m. Rayburn 2168. Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition hosts a congressional forum. amphibiouswarship.org 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Strategic Competition with China. armedservices.house.gov 2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Evolution, Transformation, and Sustainment: A Review and Assessment of the Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Request for U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command with Gen. Raymond Thomas, Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, and Owen West, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict. armedservices.house.gov FRIDAY | FEB. 16 8:30 a.m. 1777 F St. NW. The Russia Probe and U.S. National Security: A Conversation With Rep. Adam Schiff. cfr.org
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