At the beginning of an election party last night, the talk was all about whether the Conservatives would get a big majority or a huge one. The average of the opinion polls suggested that Theresa May’s Conservative Party had a lead over the Labour Party of about 6 percent.
When the result of the exit poll was announced and a “hung Parliament” (in which no party would have a majority) was confidently predicted, the room was suddenly in shock. One person said, “I’m moving to Australia” — the U.K. equivalent of Americans saying, “I’m moving to Canada” after presidential elections. The value of the pound fell.
But at the end of a long night, it seems that although the Conservatives will not have a majority of seats in Parliament, they will still be forming the next government. They will obtain quiet support in important votes from the members of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. The Conservatives have been weakened, embarrassed — even humiliated; they may struggle to pass legislation and their rule may be temporary but, for the time being, they are still in power.
The sudden election called by Theresa May has gone badly wrong, but it is not actually a disaster. As the Duke of Wellington said about his victory at the battle of Waterloo, “It has been a damned nice thing — the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life.”
But how did the plan to get an increased majority go so wrong and what happens next? The two things are closely connected.
It started to go wrong when the Conservative Party issued its manifesto (its program of policies and aspirations for government). At that time, the party had an extraordinary lead of more than 20 percent in the opinion polls. It looked like the Conservatives were heading for a landslide victory. But this manifesto was not approved by the whole of the Conservative cabinet. It was produced by a small group of Theresa May’s personal advisers and confidantes. Some are now saying had the cabinet been able to see it, they would have rejected it because it was a lousy manifesto for winning an election.
It aimed to be realistic and sensible and, while such things are necessary, they are sometimes not such a great idea in an election. It put forward policies that would hurt certain sectors of society like some of the people who need assistance to stay at home in their old age. Three or four such policies immediately became the focus of all the electioneering. This then caused Theresa May to make a U-turn, changing the policy regarding social care. So suddenly she looked to have mean intentions, unthought-through policies and a lack of strength.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party was offering to give away money to every cause it could think of as if it were giving away sweets to children.
To make matters worse, May’s public performances were poor. She was called “robotic.” She refused to take part in a debate among leaders and so then was depicted as cowardly, too. Meanwhile the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn got away without being seriously challenged on his extravagant spending plans.
So now the Conservatives still will form the next government but without a parliamentary majority. The first effect is that May will be obliged to change her style of leadership or retire. To carry her diminished party with her, she will have to give up deciding things with a small group of advisers. Instead, she will have to involve the whole cabinet and her members of Parliament. She will either agree to this or be forced out by her own party and replaced. There will be different style of leadership.
That also means that a whole lot of compromises will be made. For example, cutbacks in public spending will be harder to get through Parliament. The budget deficit will therefore come down more slowly, if at all. Also she will not be able to get through whatever kind of Brexit deal she wants. There will have to be consultations with her members of Parliament all along the way.
Yet, Brexit should continue to steam ahead. Indeed, now that the British government has invoked Article 50 initiating Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, Brexit cannot easily be stopped under the E.U.’s own rules.
Right now there is still a lot of uncertainty about how things will work out. It is very possible that before 2017 is over, a weakened Theresa May will resign and a new leader will be chosen. It is also possible that the depleted Conservative Party will call another election — either because it thinks it can do better or because it is forced to due to defeats in Parliament.
Yet, despite all this — despite the failed gamble to increase her majority and the bungled manifesto — for the moment, rather surprisingly, Theresa May is still standing.
James Bartholomew (@JGBartholomew) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a British journalist and author of several books, the latest of which is “The Welfare of Nations.”
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