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MATTIS IN MUNICH: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis takes center stage this afternoon at the annual Munich Security Conference, the premier gathering of defense and national security officials from Europe and around the world. According to the published agenda, Mattis is scheduled to deliver opening remarks, but the agenda also seems a little out of date, as it lists an event with Michael Fallon, who is no longer British defense minister, and an appearance by Sen. John McCain, who is still convalescing from the effects of chemotherapy at his home in Arizona. McCain has been a regular attendee of the conference since its founding when it was known as the Wehrkunde Conference. He usually led a delegation of senators and representatives to the conference. Mattis told reporters traveling with him that he wants to do “a lot of listening” in Munich, an informal conference where no actions are taken. Mattis is wrapping up a six-day trip that took him to Rome for a “Defeat ISIS” conference, and Brussels for a NATO defense ministers’ meeting. “In Munich I’ll be dealing mostly with ministers who are not NATO,” Mattis told reporters early in his trip. “In other words, other ministers around Europe and elsewhere that come.” ISIS PRISONERS: There was no mention of Guantanamo, but at the NATO meeting Mattis did bring up the growing problem of what to do with the hundreds of ISIS fighters captured on the battlefields of Iraq and Syria. “I needed to lay out the problem,” Mattis said, which was essentially that too many ISIS fighters failed to keep their promise to fight to the death. “We have hundreds of prisoners who don’t have quite the same amount of zeal they once pronounced when they were winning that they would fight to the death. It seems like hundreds of them are not quite that committed.” Mattis said the ISIS prisoners are now being held in temporary facilities, and he wanted to bring the problem to the attention of fellow defense ministers, but no solution was discussed. Mattis said he was “under no illusion that we would solve everything in 24 hours.” NATO ON TRACK: Mattis reported that good progress is being made for all of NATO’s member countries to meet the goal of spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense by 2024. Eight NATO nations will meet the target this year, Mattis said, and 15 nations more will meet the 2024 deadline. France will get there in 2025. “Year-on-year across the alliance, 2017 saw the largest growth … as a percentage of GDP, and the largest real growth in a quarter century,” he said. This has added $46 billion to defense across the alliance. One notable exception is Germany, which is not on track to meet the 2 percent goal. Mattis said the alliance must recognize that “not everyone has the exact same processes, the exact same kind of federal power, the exact same kind of budgeting processes. “I am confident that Germany will continue to move up in terms of its defense spending at a pace we all hope is matching the strong economy they have, and their very, very strong stance on moral values, moral leadership and human rights in the world.” TALKING TURKEY: Mattis said he had a long talk with his Turkish counterpart about U.S. concerns over Turkey’s offensive against Kurds in northern Syria, along Turkey’s border. When Mattis, or for that matter Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, are asked about Turkey, they always begin with the same talking point, that Turkey is a NATO ally and has legitimate security concerns because it faces an insurgency within its borders. This was Mattis’ second face-to-face with Nurettin Canikli, who was at the Rome conference as well. “We talked here yesterday for an extended period. We are coming together on what we can do together. It’s probably the most complex situation, fighting situation, I’ve seen over four decades,” Mattis said at a news conference at NATO headquarters. “I believe we are finding common ground, and there are areas of uncommon ground where sometimes war just gives you bad alternatives to choose from. “Our goal is to get this into the Geneva process and solve it. It will not be solved by [Syrian President Bashar] Assad, or by the Russians, or anyone else,” Mattis said. “It has got to be solved under the U.N. auspices.” Tillerson is in Turkey today for direct talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He told reporters in Lebanon yesterday he intends to build on the areas where the U.S. and Turkey share common interests and concerns. “I would tell you our endpoint objectives are completely aligned; there’s no gap between them,” Tillerson said. “We have some differences about tactically how to achieve that endpoint objective, but our objectives are to defeat ISIS, to defeat terrorism, to reduce the violence, protect people and support a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Syria.” Asked at a news conference when the U.S. would to start taking heavy arms back from the Kurdish YPG militia that Turkey considers a terrorist group, Tillerson pointed out “We have never given heavy arms to the YPG, so there’s none to take back.” The U.S. has supplied small arms and vehicles to the Syrian Democratic Forces fighting ISIS, which does have YPG elements among its ranks. The U.S. says its embedded advisers ensure those arms are not used against NATO ally Turkey. Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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PUBLISHER’S NOTE: Daily on Defense won’t be publishing Monday as we observe the President’s Day federal holiday. In addition we’ll be taking a short hiatus on Thursday and Friday of next week, Feb. 22-23, but will be back on our regular Monday-through-Friday schedule beginning Feb. 26. We have also recently upgraded our email distribution system in an effort to increase the speed and reliability to our ever-growing list of subscribers. As we have switched over to a new system, some emails may have ended up in your spam folder. We apologize for any inconvenience as we work to improve our service. ESPER’S FIRST GAGGLE: Army Secretary Mark Esper has been on the job a little over three months. After traveling around the United States, Asia and Europe to meet with soldiers, he stopped in for his first gaggle with the Pentagon press corps on Thursday. Esper served 21 years in the Army before working on Capitol Hill and ultimately as Raytheon’s top lobbyist. He told reporters he has spent his time getting reacquainted with the service and spent over 30 minutes answering questions. Here are some highlights from the gaggle: Transgender ban concerns: During his travels, Esper said he did not recall soldiers ever mentioning the president’s ordered ban on transgender military service. “It really hasn’t come up,” Esper said. “Soldiers tend to talk about, you know, ‘I didn’t get my pay, and ‘this MRE tastes terrible,’ and ‘I wanted to go to Fort Drum but I’m going to this fort’ … I talked to them about other things that nag on them.” Mattis has a Wednesday deadline to provide his recommended policy to the White House following Trump’s order last summer. Pulling a BCT from Kuwait: Esper said he is considering whether to end the deployment of an Army infantry brigade combat team to Kuwait as part of the Spartan Shield exercise. “I’ve talked with some of the combatant commanders and I’ve said look, this training is great that we’re doing with partners, but it has to have a real return on investment,” Esper said. “It just can’t be we’re sending soldiers out to train and they’re exchanging T-shirts and sipping tea. It has to have real value, otherwise I’m hurting my readiness, I’m deploying the soldiers unnecessarily.” Gender-neutral fitness: In the future, the Army will probably not require different standards for men and women when testing if they are fit enough to withstand the rigors of combat. “That is the direction we are moving, gender-neutral physical fitness tests. And by the way, the women I’ve talked to want that,” Esper said. The service has been testing universal standards as part of a pilot program. Pot waivers: Trying legal marijuana will not necessarily disqualify applicants who want to serve in the Army, Esper said. “If a young kid comes in and says, ‘I’m a habitual user and I have no intent on giving it up because it is my God-given right,’ then sorry, you go somewhere else,” Esper said. “But if [an applicant] comes in and says, ‘I’m in a state that has legalized marijuana and I tried it once when I was 15 at a party and it’s not for me and I have no intent on doing it and oh, by the way, I’m a 3.2 GPA and I’m on the basketball team.’ I’ll take you, I’ll give you a waiver and I’ll take you.” Trump’s parade: Esper was asked whether the Army has received any requests or deadlines for Trump’s proposed military parade in Washington, D.C., or whether it has any cost estimates. “The answer is no, no, no on all of the above. I have received no details on the parade or what it would look like — length, size, duration or whatever the case may be. It’s really being handled by the Joint Staff.” The pink-and-green uniform: The Army is mulling a return to the World War II-era dress uniform, which includes a green jacket with pink-tinted pants. “Now, we have a situation where people are either wearing these green uniforms in the building or they’re wearing full formal. Somebody said to me it would be like you all wearing a tux to work every day if you wore the blues.” The Army is set to make a decision on the return of the pink uniform this summer, he said. THE BURDEN ON SPECIAL OPS: In congressional testimony yesterday, U.S. Special Operations Commander Gen. Raymond Thomas said the high demand for spec ops forces has eased somewhat in the past year, and that he has been able to give his troops more time back home. “SOCOM operates at a fast but manageable pace,” Thomas told the House Armed Services Committee. “Since I last appeared, SOCOM service components effectively reduced the deployment tempo of our personnel, with the majority under the secretary of defense-directed employment-to-dwell ratio of one to two.” But Thomas said success has carried a high price. “In the past 10 months, we’ve suffered the loss of 20 special operations personnel from our formation in combat, with 144 wounded and injured.” But Thomas indicated his special operators are overused and undermanned. “As we have looked back over the years, SOF has arguably been applied very liberally with a dearth of strategy, a dearth of a real vision,” he said. “If you were to ask me, ‘Are we able to satisfy all the geographic combatant commanders requirements?’ I would tell you, ‘No.’ ” NORTHCOM COMMANDER 100% CERTAIN: Just how sure is U.S. Northern Commander Gen. Lori Robinson that the U.S. could shoot down an incoming missile from North Korea before it hit American soil? “I want to assure this committee today that I am confident that I can defend the United States,” Robinson told the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday. Pressed by Nebraska Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, Robinson doubled down. “I’m 100 percent confident in my ability to defend the United States of America,” Robinson replied. “I think we continue to outpace everybody, and it gives me more and more confidence — continued confidence in our ability to defend the United States.” But Robinson cautioned that assurance applies only to the threat as it stands today, noting that while North Korea has the capability to target the united States, it lacks the capacity to overwhelm the U.S. missile defenses. At least for now. “While I’m confident that we can defeat this threat today, it is critical that we continue to improve the ballistic missile defense enterprise, with emphasis on the development of improved sensor networks, combined with interceptor capability and capacity and reliability.” The biggest need? Better discriminating radars. “In 2019, we’re going to add the long range discriminating radars to Alaska; we’re going to add radars to Hawaii; and we’re going to do a study on what we need as we look at Cobra Dane [a 1970s radar system] coming down,” Robinson said. “Thank you to the committee for funding Cobra Dane until we figure all this out.” WHAT MOTIVATES KIM: Kim Jong Un has been reaching out to the South Korean government in an effort to buy time to develop his nuclear program amid fears that the U.S. will launch a preventative strike on the North, a defector who worked for the regime said Wednesday. The former ruling party official, Ri Jong-ho, said the North Korean leader’s willingness to engage with the South and participate in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics has been out of concern for an attack on his country, Yonhap News Agency reported. “Kim Jong Un is afraid that the U.S. will launch a preventative strike, and he is trying to buy time to complete his nuclear missile programs,” Ri said at Wilson Center event in Washington. THE RUNDOWN Foreign Policy: The Military’s ‘Readiness’ Scam Worked Again Breaking Defense: Has Turkey Gone Rogue? Defense News: No ‘bloody nose’ strategy for North Korea, says U.S. official, senators USNI News: Wittman: Armed Services Committee Won’t Accept Proposed Navy Shipbuilding Plan; More Hulls Needed Business Insider: The US’s top military-intelligence official described how the war on Mexico’s cartels has produced even more violence Defense One: Beijing Has Started Giving Latin American Generals ‘Lavish,’ All-Expenses-Paid Trips to China Bloomberg: Raytheon Ground System for Satellites Skewered by Research Firm Military.com: Pentagon’s New Deploy-or-Out Policy Could Separate Up to 286K New York Times: Most North Koreans Can’t Actually Watch the Olympic Games Reuters: Boeing stays in race to supply Canada with fighter jets: sources Stars and Stripes: Lawmaker: SOCOM reliance on war fund ‘deeply troubling’ Defense News: AI warfare is coming, and some global leaders say NATO isn’t ready Task and Purpose: The Army Is Testing Its Replacement For The Beloved Hellfire Missile, And Soldiers Already Like What They See |
CalendarFRIDAY | FEB. 16 8 a.m. Fort Lesley J. McNair. Half-day seminar on the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review with a keynote address by Gen. John Hyten, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, and comments by David Trachtenberg, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. einvitations.efit.edu 8:30 a.m. 1777 F St. NW. The Russia Probe and U.S. National Security: A Conversation With Rep. Adam Schiff. cfr.org 9:30 a.m. 740 15th St. NW. Can Economic Interventions Reduce Violence? New Evidence from Kandahar. newamerica.org 9:30 a.m. 300 First St. SE. The Mitchell Space Breakfast Series Presents: Space as a Warfighting Domain, A Discussion with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. mitchellaerospacepower.org TUESDAY | FEB. 20 9 a.m. Washington, D.C. Iran’s Missile Program in Perspective. atlanticcouncil.org 9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts. csis.org WEDNESDAY | FEB. 21 1300 Wilson Blvd. PSA Industry Roundtable Luncheon at Orbital ATK. ndia.org 11 a.m. 46870 Tate Rd. NDIA Patuxent River Speaker Series with Gerald Swift, Director for AIRWorks at Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division. ndia.org THURSDAY | FEB. 22 7:15 a.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Special topic breakfast with Rear Adm. Michael Jabaley, Navy Program Executive Officer for Submarines. navyleague.org 9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The U.S.-Japan alliance and the problem of deterrence. brookings.edu 12 noon. 214 Massachusetts Ave NE. 10 Years after the Bucharest Summit: Strengthening the U.S.-NATO-Georgia Relationship. heritage.org 3 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy with Kentaro Sonoura, an adviser to Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. atlanticcouncil.org 3:30 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the Tragedy in Vietnam. newamerica.org
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