While President Trump is likely to strongly condemn the conviction of his former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, he will probably wait for at least a year before pardoning him or commuting his sentence.
But why should we believe Trump will pardon or commute Manafort at all?
[Related: Trump refuses to discuss Paul Manafort pardon]
Well, for a few reasons. For one, the president has spoken frequently as to his belief that the Manafort prosecution represents a judiciary run amok. While this is patently untrue — even if the prosecution was the product of a fishing expedition, it was manifestly in the public interest — Trump views Manafort’s plight through the prism of his own struggle against special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. In addition, the president is a devotee to the notion of loyalty to himself. Seeing as Manafort has stood by the president until now by refusing to cooperate with Mueller, it is likely that Trump will want to reward that loyalty.
So, why wait one year to do so?
Three reasons.
First off, pardoning Manafort now would be somewhat pointless. After all, Manafort faces another separate trial due to commence in September. And if Manafort is convicted on any of the charges in that trial, then Trump would have to issue another pardon. While that would be possible, it would also foster the perception that Trump is only looking out for his friend rather than some broader service of action against the unjust persecution of his presidency (which is how the White House will attempt to sell any eventual pardon).
But Trump and his legal advisers will want to wait until Mueller’s investigation has been concluded. Without a complete picture of what Mueller’s investigation means for Trump and his inner circle, a pardon of Manafort would open the president to greater vulnerabilities. The president’s advisers also know that Manafort might now cooperate with investigators in consideration of leniency in the upcoming trial and towards avoiding a new trial on those charges that Tuesday’s jury deadlocked on.
Finally, to wait to pardon Manafort would allow Trump to deflect at least some of the criticism that would follow that action. Waiting one year would allow Trump to say something along the lines of “Manafort has spent some time in prison but didn’t deserve the excess sentence he received.” It would also allow Trump to paint his pardon in the context of other questionable but delayed presidential pardons such as Bill Clinton’s pardon of Marc Rich (ironically prosecuted by one Rudy Giuliani) and Barack Obama’s pardon of Chelsea Manning.
Ultimately, though, I do think Manafort gets his pardon. And I suspect America’s newest felon also believes as much.
