‘Worst-case scenario’: Centrist-liberal split means long 2020 nomination slog

“Dems today seem to face a worst-case scenario: Moderates split and can’t solidify to block Bernie, leading to a bruising, costly six-month battle all the way to the convention between Bernie and Bloomberg — neither of whom is actually a Dem,” journalist and author Garrett M. Graff tweeted Wednesday morning, hours after the New Hampshire results gave Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders a narrow win over former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

With former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg already spending heavily to dominate the 14 contests on March 3, “Super Tuesday,” the uber-billionaire could seemingly split the center-left vote with Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the third-place finisher in New Hampshire.

The New Hampshire outcome demonstrates how volatile and unsettled the Democratic race for the White House remains as political eyes turn to the first-in-the-West contest on Feb. 22, in the Nevada caucuses.

At first glance, Sanders and Buttigieg’s strong finishes suggest rank-and-file Democrats haven’t decided whether President Trump can most easily be ousted from office by a liberal firebrand or center-left standard-bearer. Yet comparing Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s combined vote share with that of Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and former Vice President Joe Biden indicates the electorate could begin to tilt slightly in the latter’s favor.

“If I’m Sen. Sanders’s folks, I’d be a little bit concerned about the lack of turnout that occurred last night. It looks like the final numbers between he and Mayor Pete are going to be pretty narrow. If you peel back what exactly happened a few layers, it’s not the biggest win in town,” Democratic strategist Jim Manley told the Washington Examiner.

New Hampshire state Rep. Tim Egan was initially shocked Sanders didn’t notch up a runaway victory after he thrashed Hillary Clinton by 20 percentage points in the state during the 2016 primary.

“But then, I wasn’t surprised because I think there’s a variety of voices and opinions, and while Bernie is geographically close to New Hampshire, philosophically, he’s not as much,” said Egan, who had endorsed Biden.

While Klobuchar eroded some of Sanders’s past support among independents, Egan said Buttigieg had the same effect on Sanders’s youth voter base. The lawmaker added that the pair weakened Biden’s standing among center-left Democrats too.

“It’s got to be a blow to Elizabeth Warren as well,” he said of the Massachusetts senator, who came in fourth place and, like Biden, won no delegates. “She was trying to traffic also being a neighbor of New Hampshire. An OK loss to her would have been second or third. Fourth is terrible, in my opinion, for her campaign.”

Sanders and Warren may be able to rally in Nevada given the “time they’ve spent in the state building up the contacts, the coalitions, and the infrastructure necessary to win,” according to Manley. However, their fractured relationship with some elements of organized labor, including the powerful Culinary Union, over their “Medicare for all” platform may hurt their ground games because of the organizing muscle the groups tend to lend get-out-the-vote efforts.

“It’s pretty clear they’re sharpening the knives for Sanders. They’ve made vague threats against Warren as well,” said Manley, a former spokesman for Nevada Sen. Harry Reid.

He also warned that Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar will be tested on their appeal to minority Democrats, with dynamic and growing African American, Latino, and Asian American communities in the state.

“The vice president is in a pretty bad place right now. I’m not convinced that South Carolina is going to be the firewall that he expects, and I certainly don’t have any expectation that he’s going to do well in Nevada,” Manley said. “The other two I don’t think have spent a lot of time in the state, so they’re going to have a lot of selling to do.”