Hurricane Florence poised to hit Carolinas, dump heavy rain for days

Forecasters have painted a bull’s-eye over the southeastern U.S., as the latest computer models generally agree that Hurricane Florence will make landfall over the Carolinas by the end of the week.

The National Hurricane Center forecast Tuesday morning shows Florence, still a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph sustained maximum winds, most likely making landfall by 2 a.m. Friday somewhere between North Carolina and the northern coast of South Carolina.

The hurricane brings the threat of damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and flooding, even in locations that are miles away from the center of the storm. After Florence makes landfall, the storm could stall or move very slowly over the Southeast for several days due to a high pressure zone to its north, which means there could be rainfall amounts in the double-digits of inches in the Carolinas and Virginia, with some rain associated with the storm also expected as far north as Washington, D.C., Maryland, and parts of Pennsylvania. However, the latest models suggest that the D.C. metropolitan area won’t get as much rain as previously thought.

The governors of North and South Carolina, Maryland, and Virginia have declared states of emergency, and at a Tuesday morning press conference, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser declared a state of emergency for the U.S. capital.

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Gov. Henry McMaster has ordered a mandatory evacuation for residents along the entire South Carolina coast, which impacts more than a million people. Evacuations have also been announced for parts of North Carolina — including the Outer Banks — and Virginia.

Storm surge watches are in effect along the North and South Carolina coasts as well as hurricane watches. Tropical-storm-force winds may reach the coast as early as Wednesday evening.

President Trump, who has used Twitter to urge the millions of Americans in the storm’s path to be prepared for the worst, approved emergency declarations for North Carolina and South Carolina late Monday evening, unlocking federal assistance to state and local responses to the storm. He did the same for Virginia on Tuesday.

Trump told reporters Thursday that his administration is “absolutely and totally prepared” to respond to Hurricane Florence.

On Capitol Hill, Congress so far remains undaunted by the onset of Florence. Both the House and Senate are expected to convene on Wednesday. However, Trump has canceled multiple campaign rallies this week as his team makes preparations.

In their latest forecast, the NHC expects Florence will drop to a strong Category 3 storm before making landfall. Despite the anticipated downgrade, the hurricane will still be very dangerous, capable of 111-129 mph sustained maximum winds with higher wind gusts and “catastrophic damage,” according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.


At this point in time, the storm remains at Category 4 strength. After exploding in strength and size at the start of the week, over the past several hours Florence’s winds weakened from 140 mps maximum sustained winds to 130 mph. But due to warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, the storm is poised to “undergo steady strengthening” over the next two days, the National Hurricane Center said in its late Tuesday morning discussion.

Other storms in Florence’s wake are Isaac, now a tropical storm, which could bring some rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and Helene, which is expected to curl around and not become a threat to land.

In the afternoon, the NHC said a tropical depression “is likely to form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday” and cautioned northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana to monitor how it develops.


Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Olivia heads toward Hawaii, which last month got heavy rain from Hurricane Lane. That storm brings the threat of strong winds, dangerous surf, and rain to the island chain.

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