As Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday with the election outcome very much in doubt, the political fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could ultimately hinge on the appeal of marijuana legalization among young Israeli voters.
In Israel’s complex parliamentary system, polling is notoriously unreliable, especially because it’s banned in the days leading up to the vote, and thus surveys cannot pick up late movement. But the most recent polls find Netanyahu’s Likud party either tied with the center-left Blue and White, or within two seats. More important than who holds the most seats, however, is which party is able to cobble together a coalition of other parties to garner a 61-seat majority in the Knesset, which is the Israeli parliament.
On that front, polls tend to give Netanyahu an edge. However, there’s a huge question mark— and that’s the potentially strong showing for Zehut, a new libertarian ultra-Zionist party I urged readers to keep an eye on last month. As I noted at the time, the party represents a fascinating mix of support for free market economics, personal liberty, and positions such as building the Third Temple, and a one-state solution in which Arabs living in disputed territories would be given the option of emigrate elsewhere, or become residents or citizens of Israel. But it appears the party’s support for the legalization of marijuana is the one that’s been especially appealing to younger Israelis.
Since I wrote about the party, it’s gained support, and now is expected to win five or six seats. Though that may not seem like a lot, depending on how the rest of the vote shakes out, those seats could become crucial to the math of gaining a majority.
As the Jewish Telegraphic Agency notes, “The Channel 13 poll gave Netanyahu and a right-wing bloc 60 seats without Zehut and 66 seats with it. The Yediot poll gave the right-wing bloc 63 seats and 57 without Zehut. The Israel Hayom-i24 News poll gave Netanyahu 64 seats with Zehut and 58 without.” In other words, in all three polls, Netanyahu would need the support of Zehut in order to become prime minister.
Yet so far, Zehut leader Moshe Feiglin, who previously served in Likud, has been coy about which government he’d be willing to join, if any. Previously, he said he could theoretically join either. Now, he says he may recommend himself for prime minister. Of course, this is all the natural part of any negotiation. Feiglin knows that if his seats will ultimately determine the next prime minister, if he portrays himself as up in the air, he can drive a hard bargain and gain more influence in whatever government ends up being formed. Netanyahu may not be in a position to tell him to take a hike, because if Feiglin negotiates a better deal with Blue and White, he could end Netanyahu’s political career and make rival Benny Gantz prime minister instead.
Such are the possibilities in a parliamentary system that a party that gains traction over a relatively small issue for most voters, in this case marijuana legalization, could end up deciding the nation’s leader.
