I‘ve always scoffed at the notion that the Democrats could win control of a 60-seat filibuster-proof Senate majority in November, but the Hill‘s Aaron Blake points out that “Democrats have now polled ahead or within the margin of error in 11 Republican-held seats, as polls conducted in recent weeks show openings in second-tier targets including Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas. . . Democrats have also polled ahead in at least some of the polling in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia, polling substantial leads in the latter three. They have also been within the margin of error in Minnesota and Oregon.” Just a couple months ago, Republicans really weren’t expecting they’d have to invest significant resources in Kentucky, North Carolina, or Texas. But now Democratic challengers have emerged from recent primaries, and they’re running neck and neck with GOP incumbents. And of course, Travis Childers’ win in Roger Wicker’s old congressional district made clear that Wicker’s race for the Senate is not going to be a cakewalk. As Gary Andres noted yesterday regarding the race in Kentucky: “This is one of those times when I like to remind readers that ‘early Senate polls don’t matter.'” Let’s hope.
