Donald Trump has been president for just over seven months.* The 2020 election is more than three years away. So why is his chief pollster asking if Republicans would vote for him in a presidential primary today? That’s what Tony Fabrizio asked 1,500 self-described Republican or Republican-leaning voters nationally earlier this month.
“If there were a Republican Primary for President held today, which ONE of the following potential candidates would you be MOST likely to vote for?” read the question. Just 50 percent named Trump. Among those who are considered “definite GOP primary voters,” that number was 54 percent. Just 49 percent of those definite primary voters said they would “definitely” vote for Trump. Among definite primary voters, Ted Cruz got 13 percent, John Kasich 10 percent, and Ben Sasse and Tom Cotton got 1 percent each.
Fabrizio trumpeted the results on Twitter, saying they showed Trump “crushing a hypothetical” field for 2020. “So much for the ‘buyer’s remorse’ the DC insiders are convinced the GOP has.”
I’ve asked for more data and details about the poll from Fabrizio, who did not respond.
Perhaps the result isn’t as bad as it looks for Trump. Ariel Edwards-Levy points to a poll from 2010 asking a similar question about a potential Democratic field. Just 64 percent of those asked said they’d support the incumbent president, Barack Obama, while 16 percent said they’d support Hillary Clinton and 6 percent Howard Dean. That’s better than Trump’s position, though not as high as you might expect for an incumbent president.
But the fact that Fabrizio is asking the question at all—and touting a lackluster result—suggests there’s some concern on Team Trump that the president could pick up a primary challenge in 2020.
It’s not just Mitch McConnell. Josh Dawsey and Elana Schor report for Politico that “Trump clashed with multiple GOP senators over Russia”—including Thom Tillis, the North Carolina Republican who is co-sponsoring a bill that would make it difficult for Trump to fire the special counsel, Robert Mueller.
Trump Tweet of the Day
Phoenix crowd last night was amazing – a packed house. I love the Great State of Arizona. Not a fan of Jeff Flake, weak on crime & border!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 23, 2017
Fresh off his off-script rally in Phoenix, President Trump gave a more staid performance to the American Legion in Reno, Nevada, on Wednesday, sticking to his teleprompter and calling for unity and healing.
“It is time to heal the wounds that have divided us, and to seek a new unity based on the common values that unite us,” Trump said, less than 18 hours after he railed against his “damned dishonest” detractors, “bad people” that “don’t like our country.”
“We are one people with one home and one flag,” the president added Wednesday.
Trump’s speech took place at the signing ceremony for the “Veterans Appeals Improvement and Modernization Act of 2017,” which the White House says will “streamline the lengthy process that veterans undergo when appealing their claims for disability benefits.”
“If American patriots could secure our independence, carve out a home in the wilderness, and free millions from oppression around the world, that same sense of patriotism, courage, and love can help us create a better future for our people today,” Trump said.
“We are not defined by the color of our skin, the figure on our paycheck, or the party of our politics,” Trump said. “We are defined by our shared humanity, by our citizenship in this magnificent nation, and by the love that fills our hearts.”
Speaking of the Arizona rally,Politico’s Alex Isenstadt has the inside scoop on Trump’s pre-speech powwow with potential primary opponents of Senator Jeff Flake.
“Before taking the stage in Phoenix on Tuesday evening for a campaign-style rally, the president huddled backstage with state Treasurer Jeff DeWit and former state GOP Chairman Robert Graham. Both are considering running against Flake, an outspoken critic of the president who recently published an anti-Trump book, Conscience of a Conservative,” writes Isenstadt. “Also participating in the huddle was Rep. Trent Franks, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who appeared at the rally. At one point, Franks told the president that either DeWit or Graham would make strong challengers to Flake.”
One challenger already in the race, former state senator Kelli Ward, has earned a tweet of encouragement, if not outright endorsement, from President Trump. But Ward, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2016 GOP Senate primary against John McCain, did nab the endorsement of Fox News host Sean Hannity on Wednesday.
Special Election Watch—A new poll out this week paints a bleak picture for Alabama’s junior senator Luther Strange, who hopes to survive a Republican primary runoff against challenger and former state supreme court chief justice Roy Moore next month.
The poll of likely voters puts support for Moore at 51 percent, with 32 percent backing Strange and 17 percent undecided.
GOP leaders in Washington have thrown their weight behind Strange, with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell tapping his fundraising apparatus and even President Trump repeatedly tweeting his support.
But they so far have yet to woo those who backed congressman Mo Brooks, who did not make the runoff in last month’s primary election. The poll indicates that voters who previously supported Brooks switched their allegiance to Moore twice as frequently as they switched to Strange.
Strange and Moore are running for the GOP nomination in December’s special election to complete the term of Jeff Sessions, who resigned his seat to become attorney general. The runoff is on September 26.
Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney, is the Democratic nominee.
Long Read of the Day—“Is Anybody Home at HUD?” by Alex MacGillis.
Song of the Day—“Crush” by Dave Matthews Band.
Correction: This article originally said Trump has been president for eight months. It only feels that way.
