THREATS FROM RUSSIA, IRAN: After a deal was worked out between House and Senate negotiators over the weekend, the House passed a sweeping sanctions bill against Russia, Iran and North Korea by a near unanimous 419-3 vote. The bill not only punishes Russia for its actions in Ukraine and for meddling in the 2016 election, but also limits the president’s ability to give Russia any sanctions relief in the future without the approval of Congress. A similar bill passed the Senate 98-2, but the House version now goes back to the Senate. The votes by a veto-proof margin mean President Trump will likely have to accept congressionally-imposed limits on his flexibility in dealing with Russia, whether or not he signs the final bill.
The Republican-controlled Congress seems in a mood to reassert itself, something Sen. John McCain underscored in his dramatic floor speech yesterday. “Whether or not we are of the same party, we are not the president’s subordinates. We are his equal!” said McCain who returned after being diagnosed with brain cancer.
Russia continues to hint it will retaliate in some way for the sanctions and for Washington’s refusal so far to return two Russian compounds in Maryland and New York, seized by the Obama administration in response to Russian interference in the elections. The Kremlin says the latest sanctions are counterproductive, but hasn’t indicated what form retaliation could take.
Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Russian Upper House Committee, wrote on Facebook that Moscow’s reply must be painful. “What shall we do? First of all we should not hurry – we must react only to the laws that are already in force. Second, we must prepare such reaction, because it definitely must follow, not a symmetrical one, but painful for Americans.”
Iran is also threatening retaliation, according to its state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, which quotes a deputy foreign minister as saying the new sanctions are “a completely clear hostile act and against the Islamic Republic of Iran and … will be met with a definitive response,” according to Reuters.
WARNING SHOTS IN THE GULF: Iran has continued to harass U.S. warships in international waters in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. military released video yesterday of the latest confrontation, in which the USS Thunderbolt fired warning shots at an Iranian vessel that was closing in on the coastal patrol boat. “The Iranian vessel’s actions were not in accordance with the internationally recognized ‘rules of the road’ nor internationally recognized maritime customs, creating a risk for collision,” said a U.S. military statement. Last year, at a campaign rally in Florida, then-candidate Trump said that if Iranian vessels inappropriately approached U.S. ships, they could be “shot out of the water.”
PYONGYANG’S THREAT: North Korea is also threatening retaliation — or more precisely a preemptive nuclear strike — not in response to sanctions, but in reaction to comments that CIA Director Mike Pompeo made at last weekend’s Aspen Security Forum. Pompeo seemed to be saying the U.S. might target North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in a decapitation strike.
“It would be a great thing to denuclearize the peninsula, to get those weapons off of that. But the thing that is most dangerous about it is the character who holds the control over them today,” Pompeo said. “The most important thing we can do is separate those two, right? Separate capacity and someone who might well have intent, and break those two apart. And I am confident the intelligence community will present a set, a wide range of options for the president about how we might go about that.”
In response, the North Korean Foreign Ministry said, “The DPRK legally stipulates that if the supreme dignity of the DPRK is threatened, it must preemptively annihilate those countries and entities that are directly or indirectly involved in it, by mobilizing all kinds of strike means including the nuclear ones,” according to CNN. “Should the US dare to show even the slightest sign of attempt to remove our supreme leadership, we will strike a merciless blow at the heart of the US with our powerful nuclear hammer, honed and hardened over time.”
NEW MISSILE ASSESSMENT: The latest threat comes as North Korea continues to surprise the U.S. intelligence community with how fast it’s progressing toward its stated goal of developing a missile with the range to hit the mainland United States. “North Korea will be able to field a reliable, nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year,” reports the Washington Post, quoting unnamed U.S. officials. “The new assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) … shaves a full two years off the consensus forecast for North Korea’s ICBM program,” the Post said.
The report came on the same day the House Armed Services Committee received a classified briefing on the pace of North Korea’s ICBM development. “The apparent success of the July 4th test is an alarming development as North Korea accelerates its pursuit of being able to hold the United States at risk with nuclear weapons,” said Chairman Mac Thornberry after the briefing. Thornberry called for fully funding the nation’s missile defenses. “I have grown increasingly alarmed that North Korea is acting with a greater sense of urgency than we are.”
THE MAN WITH THE PLAN: In remarks that got scant coverage at this past weekend’s Aspen Security Summit, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford revealed he’s hard at work on military options if diplomacy fails with North Korea. “It is not unimaginable to have military options to respond to North Korean nuclear capability,” Dunford told the forum. “What’s unimaginable to me is allowing a capability that will allow a nuclear weapon to land in Denver, Colorado.” Dunford stressed the emphasis remains on diplomacy, and would not comment on Pompeo’s veiled threat against Kim, although he did say at some point military options may have to be considered. “What we will do is we’ll go to President Trump when the time comes, and we’re obviously in conversations now about what’s in the art of possible and we have spoken to him a couple of times. But we’ll go to him at some point with a range of military options.” Dunford also warned that a second Korean War would be “horrific … a loss of life unlike any we have experienced in our lifetimes.”
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics release their 2017 second quarter earning results. Raytheon is scheduled to release its earnings report on Thursday morning.
HOT MIC TALK: Republican Sen. Susan Collins was caught on a hot mic yesterday taking Trump to task for his handling of the defense budget, questioning whether he knows how the Budget Control Act works or whether it exists. Collins and Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, lamented Trump’s lack of involvement in passing the budget and lifting spending caps set for 2018 by the BCA. “I don’t even think he knows that there is a BCA or anything, I really don’t,” Collins said in the candid recording shared widely online. Reed, referring to the potential of sequestration if the caps are broken, panned Trump for his Saturday speech at Newport News, Va., to introduce the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford to the fleet. “He was down at the Ford commissioning saying ‘I want them to pass my budget.’ OK, so we give him $54 billion and then we take it away across the board, which would cause chaos.”
Yesterday, House Speaker Paul Ryan said passage of the National Defense Authorization Act will not by itself trigger the across-the-board budget cuts mandated by the BCA because it’s an authorization, not an appropriation bill. “The budget resolution is not a law,” Ryan told reporters. “Appropriations with the caps in place require a law change,” he said, “a budget in and of itself does not do that.”
In his floor speech yesterday, McCain scolded his colleagues for “getting nothing done,” and “mandating legislation from the top down, without any support from the other side.” McCain, who is facing a dire prognosis from a deadly form of brain cancer, said he will be around for a few days to manage floor debate on the defense authorization bill. “After that, I’m going home for a while to treat my illness. I have every intention of returning here and giving many of you cause to regret all the nice things you said about me,” McCain said.
AUMF CONCERNS: House lawmakers in both parties agree Congress needs to pass new legislation authorizing the use of military force against terrorists, but it’s not clear they can agree on the details. A panel of Republicans and Democrats with jurisdiction over declarations of war mulled the issue Tuesday, days after GOP leadership killed a bill that would have set a deadline for passing a new bill to justify the fighting in Syria and elsewhere.
They agree the law Congress passed in 2001, following the 9/11 attacks, is an imperfect basis for U.S. involvement in conflicts around the world. But they disagree on what the new authorization should say and some worry Congress won’t be able to stick to any deadline.
IT’S NOW A CRIMINAL PROBE: Days after Mattis warned the Defense Department about wasting money on Afghan army uniforms, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction said Tuesday he has opened a criminal investigation into why the department allegedly wasted $28 million since 2008 on a proprietary camouflage that is ill-suited for the country’s terrain. SIGAR’s John Sopko testified to a House subcommittee that the Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan showed the Afghan defense minister camouflage owned by single Canadian company, HyperStealth, when the department had similar patterns available that were not being used.
Sopko also said it appeared the command told HyperStealth around 2008 that it would soon be contacted by a second company, Atlantic Diving Supply Inc., about its proprietary Spec4ce Forest camo pattern. Atlantic Diving Supply Inc. later signed on as a subcontractor to exclusively sell the pattern to Afghanistan and the U.S. government. SIGAR was still investigating whether the command inappropriately disclosed the contractor proposal, Sopko said. “It certainly seems to me that we might just not find a mistake but fraud and other improprieties,” said Rep. Seth Moulton, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Oversight and Investigations subcommittee.
ANOTHER MATTIS MEMO: The Pentagon has released a memo Mattis sent to the Joint Chiefs and service secretaries last week directing a working group to come up with changes in personnel policies in order to increase “flexibility to organize, train, and equip more ready and lethal forces.” The massive review is aimed and ensuring everything the Pentagon does is aimed at increasing combat effectiveness. “Examples of policies requiring review include: relating to the retention or separation of permanently non-deployable Service members; professional military education to regain a concentration on the art and science of warfighting; requirements for mandatory force training that does not directly support core tasks; hiring practices for the civilian workforce; and a return to counterintelligence competencies for the Services law enforcement agencies,” Mattis wrote in the July 21 memo.
REX & RELAXATION: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is “taking a little time off” for vacation following an extended trip to Europe and the Middle East, his spokeswoman said. “He does have the ability to go away for a few days on his own,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters. “He’s got a lot of work, he just came back from that mega-trip overseas … so he’s entitled to take a few days for himself.”
The summer break comes the same week the Pentagon announced Mattis is also taking some “personal leave” this week, although he’s expected to take take part in some meetings by remote teleconference. Coincidence? Asked if by chance Mattis and Tillerson were meeting up in some secret location, Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis said, “No such conspiracy. The secretary is on leave. Just that simple.”
THE RUNDOWN
Reuters: Trump Warns ‘Emboldened’ Iran To Comply With Nuclear Deal
New York Times: Trump finds reason for the U.S. to remain in Afghanistan: Minerals
DoD Buzz: Airmen fighting ISIS talk future electronic attack aircraft EC-X
Foreign Policy: Pence working to reverse Pentagon’s transgender policies
USA Today: As it loses in Syria and Iraq, ISIS establishes a new beachhead: the Philippines
Wall Street Journal: Afghan leader struggles to build working state amid dysfunction
Military Times: U.S. weapons complicate Afghan war
Reuters: Air Strikes, Shelling Strain Moscow-Backed Damascus Truce
USNI News: Second Huntington Ingalls Industries restart destroyer Ralph Johnson completes builder’s trials
CNN: Satellite Photos Reveal Underground Construction At Chinese Military Base
New York Times: China and Russia hold first joint naval drill in the Baltic Sea
USNI News: Beijing Accuses U.S. Navy Surveillance Aircraft Of Operating Unsafely; Repeats Call For U.S. To Stop Surveillance Flights Near China
AP: Dad: Former Marine killed in Syria ‘had a mission’ in IS battle
New York Times: U.S. Soldier Who Survived Fatal Attack By A Jordanian Tells His Story
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JULY 26
7:30 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. Capitol Hill breakfast series with Gen. David Goldfein, Air Force chief of staff. afa.org
8:30 a.m. 1301 K St. NW. Sen. Bob Corker discusses Congress’s move to sanction Russia, Iran and North Korea. washingtonpost.com
9 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. What a North Korean ballistic missile threat means for the U.S. missile defense system with Sen. Dan Sullivan. heritage.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. cyber diplomacy with Christopher Painter, coordinator for cyber issues at the State Department. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Assessing the U.S.-Qatar relationship. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. History of U.S. alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. csis.org
4:30 p.m. 800 17th St. NW. 2017 Women In Defense HORIZONS Scholarship celebration. Ndia.org
8 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington. Acting Army Secretary Robert Speer provides remarks at the Association of the U.S. Army Institute of Land Warfare Rogers Strategic Issues Forum, at the AUSA Conference & Event Center
THURSDAY | JULY 27
9:30 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Economic levers of U.S. policy toward North Korea. cnas.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Hostilities in the Himalayas? Assessing the India-China border standoff. wilsoncenter.org
10:30 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Continued oversight of the transfer of excess military equipment to civilian law enforcement agencies. armedservices.house.gov
12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Luncheon with Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley. press.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2154. Subcommittee hearing on combating homegrown terrorism. oversight.house.gov
2:15 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on a bill to prohibit travel-related transactions to, from, and within North Korea by persons subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region, a Fiscal Year 2018 budget hearing. foreignaffairs.house.gov
FRIDAY | JULY 28
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The ramifications of Rouhani’s reelection. atlanticcouncil.org
2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Retired military leaders from Japan and the U.S. discuss the results of the Military Statesmen Forum. csis.org
MONDAY | JULY 31
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. NATO at a crossroads and the next steps for the transatlantic alliance. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 5000 Seminary Rd. iFest 2017 with a keynote by Maj. Gen. Thomas Deale, vice director of Air Force Joint Force Development. ndia.org
TUESDAY | AUGUST 1
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The U.S. Coast Guard’s priorities for the future with the commandant, Adm. Paul Zukunft. csis.org
6:30 p.m. 14750 Conference Center Dr. Peter B. Teets Award Dinner. ndia.org
6:30 p.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Reception and welcome dinner for Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. afa.org
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 2
7 a.m. 4803 Stonecroft Blvd. National Security Space Policy and Architecture Symposium. ndia.org
9:30 a.m. Senate Visitors Center 212-10. Release of the study “Survivability in the Digital Age: The Imperative for Stealth” with opening remarks by Sen. Mike Rounds. mitchellaerospacepower.org
2 p.m. Senate Visitors Center 217. Closed top-secret meeting on the authorizations for the use of military force and the Trump administration perspective with Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. foreign.state.gov
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Cyber Risk Wednesday: DEF CON to DC. atlanticcouncil.org
