Beltway Confidential

If past is prologue, Trump will win the debate

By Jason Russell

Published September 26, 2016 4:58pm ET

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If past is prologue, Trump will win the debate — According to analysis by Nate Silver and Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight, after the first presidential debate, polls tend to shift in favor of the candidate from the challenging party. (AP Photo) | David Goldman

If history is any indication, Donald Trump will win the presidential debate tonight.

No, not because he did well in the Republican primary debates — simply because he’s the Republican nominee while a Democrat is in the White House.

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2016 Elections Commentary Debates Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Jason Russell Polls