Every election year, it seems, there’s a race that catches the political set in Washington by surprise. It’s possible that we’ve already seen the 2014 version of this with the defeat of House majority leader Eric Cantor, a result few anticipated and fewer still predicted.

Maybe it’s a race that we’re already watching – the Senate contests in Kansas or Georgia – or where the surprise hatched early. Perhaps it’s one of the gubernatorial races in New England – Connecticut or Massachusetts – where polls suggest the race is tight but where a victory by the Republican would still count as a mild surprise. Or Illinois? Maybe even Hawaii? Each of those races is in the “toss-up” column on RealClearPolitics, so while results could surprise nothing would be truly shocking.