The new Quinnipiac poll of the New Jersey Senate contest shows Jeff Bell only 11 points down to Cory Booker, 51 to 40 percent, among likely voters. It goes without saying that a race can move a dozen points in the final five weeks of a campaign—especially when a little known challenger (but one who’s well-regarded by those who do know of him) is taking on a pro-Obama incumbent who’s barely above 50 percent in an anti-Obama, anti-incumbent year. (Obama’s approval in New Jersey is hovering around 41 percent.)
But take a further look at the poll results. Booker leads Bell, 51-40. Seventy-six percent of Booker supporters and 84 percent of Bell supporters say their mind is made up. Do the math. Among those whose mind is made up, Booker leads Bell 39 to 34 percent.
So Booker’s hard lead over Bell is a mere 5 points. He’ll outspend Bell over the next month. But money can’t buy you love. Sometimes, it can’t even buy you votes. If New Jersey flips in November, we’ll remember this Quinnipiac poll as Jeff Bell’s fire bell in the night.
