McMASTERFUL CHOICE: President Trump yesterday disarmed his critics and delighted supporters with the choice of a legendary commander to be his next national security adviser. Lt. Gen. Herbert Raymond McMaster, known forevermore as H.R., enjoys a reputation as a deep strategic thinker with strong convictions about speaking truth to power. With the three-star general sitting by his side, Trump called him “a man of tremendous talent and tremendous experience” who is highly respected by everybody in the military. True enough. In 2014, he made Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Retired Lt. Gen. Dave Barno wrote at the time that McMaster might be “the 21st century Army’s pre-eminent warrior-thinker,” and “also the rarest of soldiers — one who has repeatedly bucked the system and survived to join its senior ranks.”
Much of McMaster’s fame stems from his 1997 book Dereliction of Duty, which drew from his PhD thesis at the University of North Carolina. The book, which is now required reading, was a scathing criticism of the failure of senior military officers to challenge President Lyndon Johnson and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara over the flawed strategy in Vietnam. One passage from Chapter 5 gives a flavor of McMaster’s thesis: “[Gen. Maxwell] Taylor shielded [Johnson] from the views of his less politically sensitive colleagues, while telling the Chiefs that their recommendations had been given full consideration. To keep the Chiefs from expressing dissenting views, he helped create a relationship based on distrust and deceit in which the president obscured the finality of decisions and made false promises that the JCS conception of the war might one day be realized.”
ADVICE FOR THE ADVISER: Some advice from a former adviser? McMaster must “resist getting involved in the tactical operations of our efforts around the world,” according to Obama’s former national security adviser, retired Gen. Jim Jones. One question: McMaster is an active-duty officer, so was this an offer he couldn’t refuse from his commander in chief?
THE RUNNERS-UP: In making the announcement from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, Trump said retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who was considered for the top job, will remain as the chief of staff for the National Security Council, and former U.N. ambassador John Bolton will likely get another job in the Trump administration. “John is a terrific guy. We had some really good meetings with him. Knows a lot, has a good — a good number of ideas that I must tell you I agree very much with,” Trump said. “So we’ll be talking to John Bolton in a different capacity.”
FROM HIS LIPS: We have finally heard firsthand from Vice President Mike Pence about the firing offense that pushed Trump to dump retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn. “I would tell you that I was disappointed to learn that the facts that had been conveyed to me by General Flynn were inaccurate,” Pence said at a Monday news conference in Brussels. “I fully support the president’s decision to ask for his resignation. It was the proper decision, it was handled properly and in a timely way.”
PENCE’S FENCE-MENDING MISSION: Almost every news account of the vice president’s European trip contained some version of the phrase “reassured nervous allies.” Pence spent a lot of time insisting that America’s commitment to the transatlantic alliance was unwavering, and that Trump’s Twitter tirades should not be a cause of concern. The trepidation of the allies was summed up by one reporter at yesterday’s news conference who asked: “President Trump has said very different things… Who should European leaders listen to, you or President Trump? And can they be certain that what you say, the assurances you give, won’t be contradicted in a tweet or a statement at a press conference tomorrow?” Pence’s reply: “United States is expressing strong support for NATO,” and “We look forward to working across the channel with all parties in the years ahead on behalf of peace and prosperity.”
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NOW COMES THE HARD PART: Phase two of the campaign to liberate Mosul from the grip of the Islamic State began over the weekend, and the expectation is that the urban combat in the densely populated western part of the city will be even more difficult and deadly than the fight in the east. Top U.S. commander Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend told reporters in Baghdad yesterday that U.S. troops are even closer to the front lines in order to help the Iraqis. “We’re operating closer and deeper into the Iraqi formation,” he said. “We adjusted our posture during the east Mosul fight and we embedded advisers a bit further down into the formation.” Townsend was meeting with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who promised that whatever Townsend wants, he’ll get. “We’ll accommodate any request from the field commanders,” Mattis said. Townsend also said once Mosul is freed, he doesn’t anticipate U.S. troops will leave. “I think that the government of Iraq realizes this is a very complex fight and they’re gonna need the assistance of the coalition even beyond Mosul,” he said.
The U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State destroyed a terrorist-held command and control center in western Mosul with an airstrike on Friday. The facility was in a medical complex, but intelligence showed that it was no longer used for any healthcare purposes.
IT’S OFFICIAL, THE ENEMY IS ISIS: By way of USA Today we learn a memo is out changing ISIL to ISIS, Trump’s preferred acronym for the Islamic State group.
“Subject: Naming Convention for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Consistent with National Security Presidential Memorandum-3 of January 28, 2017, ‘Plan to Defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria,’ and guidance from the Secretary of Defense, the Department of Defense will use the term Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, when referring to this threat.”
We noticed the lack of ISIL talk last month during the confirmation hearings.
MORE TROOPS FOR AFGHANISTAN: Bad weather forced Mattis to cancel a similar inspection tour of Afghanistan that had been planned for Sunday, but Mattis said he talked to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani “at length” in Munich and conferred with U.S. Afghanistan Commander Gen. John Nicholson by video conference. “I had a very in-depth discussion about the way ahead in Afghanistan,” Mattis said. “Shortly I’ll have my thoughts collected. It shouldn’t take too long, but I’ve got to integrate a fair number of issues in order to give a good recommendation for the way ahead.”
LET TURKEY DO IT: Following Trump’s recent call to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which he discussed setting up safe zones in Northern Syria, Sen. John McCain made a stop in Ankara on his way back from the Munich Conference to meet with Erdogan. McCain released a statement that gives a not-so-subtle hint of where things may be going there. Up to now, the U.S. has frozen Turkey out of the Raqqa offensive, for fear of alienating the Kurdish fighters who are doing all the heavy lifting. But Erdogan, who sees some Kurds as terrorists, wants in on the action and is basically offering to take the problem off America’s hands. McCain called his meeting with Erdogan “warm and constructive,” and called the change of administration “an important opportunity to review and reassess current policy in Syria.” McCain said the U.S.-Turkey alliance is based on shared democratic values. “To that end,” he said, “President Erdogan described a proposal to establish safe zones in Syria and retake Raqqa that should receive serious consideration by the United States.”
TRUMP TOUTS MORE SAVINGS: At a rally Saturday night in Florida, Trump claimed he negotiated more than $1 billion in savings on the estimated $4 billion program to build two new Air Force Ones, all with just an hour of negotiations. “I refuse to fly in a $4.2 billion plane,” Trump said at his Melbourne, Florida, rally. “We’ve got that price down by over $1 billion and I probably haven’t spoken for more than an hour on the project. I got the generals in who are fantastic … but I told Boeing that isn’t good enough, the price is still too high.” Trump also indicated he wasn’t convinced the president needs a backup Air Force One. “Why they need two planes, we’ll have to talk about that,” Trump said. Buying just one plane would be one way to cut the cost, although it would push the per-plane cost up. A Boeing spokeswoman did not have any immediate response to where or how these savings will be achieved.
In his remarks at Boeing Friday, Trump also said he’s “looking seriously at a big order” of Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets. The Navy is the only practical customer for new Super Hornets. Last week, Rear Adm. Dewolfe “Chip” Miller, the Navy’s director of air and warfare, told a House subcommittee that the Navy’s 30-year aviation plan envisions a carrier air wing mix of two squadrons of F-35Cs and two squadrons of Super Hornets. “We feel that that mix, that complementary capacity of the Super Hornet and the capability of the F-35C is gonna handle us well in the near term and as we continue to grow that capability, into the far term,” Miller said.
BRAC COULD ACTUALLY HAPPEN: The election of a businessman with a focus on cutting waste to the White House. Growing concern in Congress that military readiness has reached critically low levels. And the military pleading once again to be able to get rid of some of its excess infrastructure. Combined, these three factors point to 2017 being the first year in many in which base realignment and closures could actually happen, after several years of BRAC being one of those automatic, dead-on-arrival propositions. That’s because they equate to lost jobs back home for savings that take years to realize.
And analysts warned that while they’re more optimistic this year than in the past that closures could occur, it’s far from a done deal and could be derailed by political fighting or a lack of commitment to the cause from Trump. Dakota Wood, a senior research fellow for defense with the Heritage Foundation, said “the stars have aligned” to see serious progress on a new round of base realignment and closure this year, especially given Trump’s background in business.
OIL’S WELL THAT ENDS WELL: While in Iraq, Mattis had to roll back comments Trump has made about seizing oil from Iraq. “We’re not in Iraq to seize anybody’s oil,” he told reporters traveling with him. Trump as recently as January suggested that the United States should have taken oil from the Iraqis after the 2003 U.S. invasion of the country, suggesting the opportunity might arise again.
NOT THE ENEMY: Mattis was also asked by the traveling press if he shared Trump’s view that the media is an enemy of the American people. “I’ve had some rather contentious times with the press, but no, as far as I’m concerned, the press is a constituency that we deal with and I don’t have any issues with the press myself,” he said.
LIFE AFTER ISIS: Iranian leaders will have an opportunity to cement their status as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism once a U.S.-led coalition drives the Islamic State from their last remaining strongholds, according to Republican and Democratic lawmakers, Joel Gehrke writes. “The day after Raqqa falls is going to be the moment that Iran moves to try to oust the United States from the region,” Sen. Marco Rubio told the Washington Examiner.
That wouldn’t leave much time to celebrate the capture of the Islamic State’s capital city. An Iranian offensive would represent more than one terrorist threat succeeding another, because they’re collaborating with a Russian government that aspires openly to create a “post-West world order.” Lawmakers are concerned the destruction of ISIS as a territorial power could inaugurate a new phase in the regional rivalry with the United States. “I do think there will be some collusion between Russia and Iran,” New York Rep. Eliot Engel, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told the Washington Examiner. “I worry about it.”
SAGGING MORALE: Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said morale in the intelligence community is “not a good situation” because of the contentious relationship with the White House. “Every time he demeans the intelligence community or accuses it of leaks or accuses it of doing things that it’s not doing, that obviously impacts on the morale of that institution,” Panetta said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
In this morning’s Washington Post, one CIA employee, Edward Price, who was most recently a spokesman for the National Security Council, wrote that he’s quitting because of Trump. “To be clear, my decision had nothing to do with politics, and I would have been proud to again work under a Republican administration open to intelligence analysis,” Price writes. “As intelligence professionals, we’re taught to tune out politics. The river separating CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., from Washington might as well be a political moat. But this administration has flipped that dynamic on its head: The politicians are the ones tuning out the intelligence professionals.”
BILDEN STILL ONBOARD: The White House and Mattis both strongly denied reports over the weekend that Philip Bilden, Trump’s choice to be the next Navy secretary, is going to withdraw himself from consideration for the position. “Just spoke with him and he is 100% commited [sic] to being the next SECNAV pending Senate confirm,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer wrote on Twitter.
A SIGNAL CHINA CAN’T MISS: Over the weekend, the Navy deployed the U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer to sail through the South China Sea for what the Navy called “routine operations.” China, however, took issue with the deployment, which it said threatens its “indisputable sovereignty” in the body of water. China claims sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, including islands more than 800 miles from its mainland. The U.S. does not recognize any sovereignty claims beyond the traditional 12-mile limit.
RUSSIA PROBE UPDATE: The Senate Intelligence Committee has sent a letter to the White House, as well as several other agencies, asking it to confirm that it was preserving all documentation related to the probe into Russia’s involvement in the election, including documentation that showed contact anyone in Trump’s circle had with Russian officials. Though there’s been no evidence that anything is being destroyed or hidden, some aren’t optimistic that a Republican-controlled Congress can adequately investigate the administration. McCain said he has “more hope than belief” that a GOP-led panel can be impartial.
THE RUNDOWN
Defense One: US Air Force ‘Urgently’ Needs Funds By April
Associated Press: Trump’s plan for spike in defense spending faces big hurdles
New York Times: The Kremlin Renounces News Report On Ukraine
IHS Janes: China reducing coal imports likely to substantially reduce North Korea’s income, undermining economic and political stability
Wall Street Journal: Missile Shield Plan Stirs Ire; Beijing actions are seen as retaliation against Seoul’s plans for a U.S. missile defense system
Defense News: Russia’s Rostec to co-develop 5th-gen fighter with UAE
UPI: Second Lockheed Martin T-50A completes first flight
War is Boring: How Putin Might Yank Away Trump’s Control Over Nuclear Weapons
Defense News: New Houthi Weapon Emerges: A Drone Boat; U.S. admiral fears Yemen civil war widening into the Red Sea
USNI News: Navy: Saudi Frigate Attacked by Unmanned Bomb Boat, Likely Iranian
Washington Post: For a Trump adviser, an odyssey from the fringes of Washington to the center of power
Associated Press: Mattis to decide soon on troop levels in Afghanistan
Navy Times: LCS crew marooned in Singapore on an open-ended deployment
Long War Journal: Afghan intelligence confirms top al Qaeda leader killed in raid
San Diego Union Tribune: Robots Poised To Take Over Wide Range Of Military Jobs
Marine Corps Times: Is it time to give Chesty Puller the Medal of Honor?
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 21
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses defense priorities in the Trump administration. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A panel talks about the future prospects for the Iran nuclear deal. heritage.org
2 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Center for a New American Security CEO Michele Flournoy sits on a panel to discuss the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and how it should be modified. cnas.org
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23
8 a.m. 1800 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington, Va. Allison Stiller, the assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition, speaks at a Navy League breakfast event. navyleague.org
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein speaks at a military strategy forum. csis.org
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford talks about global threats and U.S. national security priorities. brookings.edu
12 p.m. Rayburn 2168. Cato Institute experts talk about whether it’s time to conduct another round of base realignment and closures. cato.org
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A panel discusses efforts to develop a global standard for drones. stimson.org
