By ultimately voting in favor of President Trump’s emergency declaration, Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., signaled that he’s thinking about his re-election in 2020. But in the process of doing so, he compromised his longer-term political prospects.
On the surface, the politics of Sasse’s vote makes sense. He is, after all, senator of a very conservative state and faces re-election in 2020. A vote to disapprove of Trump’s emergency declaration could easily be turned by a primary opponent into a vote against border security. By voting with Trump, he makes it less likely that any primary challenge would prove successful.
That said, if Sasse’s longer-term ambition is to run for president, his vote will likely work against him.
When the post-Trump era begins with the 2024 presidential campaign, there are two basic directions which the Republican Party could head.
One direction is that Republican candidates will try to claim to be in the mold of Trump. This was the case for decades with former President Ronald Reagan, as Republican candidates tripped over themselves to be defined as Reaganites.
The other direction is that all the candidates are going to race to distance themselves from Trump, as was the case with former President George W. Bush.
If Sasse wants to run for president someday, which is broadly assumed, he’s going to have to navigate one of these environments.
The Trumpian road is likely cut off for Sasse, because he spent several years positioning himself as one of the most “Never Trump” Republican senators, often criticizing Trump for violating norms, and warning against an outcome-driven politics that destroys institutions.
If in 2024 and beyond, Republican voters are looking for an ideological successor to Trump, they would have much better options, such as Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., both of them who have embraced Trumpism.
Sasse, it appeared, was well positioned to capitalize in an environment in which Republican voters want to move on from Trump. He could have argued that he opposed Trump when it wasn’t popular to do so. But Sasse’s vote in support of Trump’s claim of emergency powers seriously undermines any claim he may make to future voters looking for a break from Trump. In the process, as Matt Lewis notes, he came off looking weak.
Now, it’s true that right now, the demand for Trump-critical Republicans among conservative voters is about as high as the demand for VHS rewinding machines. But Sasse was never going to win a Republican nomination as a natural successor to Trump, so his best move was to stick with his principles, hope the tide turned, and be prepared to give up presidential ambitions if it did not. Now, it seems, he’ll find it even more difficult to carve out a niche.
