SIGN UP! If you’d like to continue receiving Washington Examiner’s Daily on Energy newsletter, SUBSCRIBE HERE: http://newsletters.washingtonexaminer.com/newsletter/daily-on-energy/

IRAN’S OIL EXPORTS DROP FASTER THAN EXPECTED UNDER TRUMP SANCTIONS THREAT: Iran’s oil exports are falling faster than expected ahead of sanctions Trump will impose in November, according to a report Tuesday.

Iran’s oil exports are expected to fall by a third in September, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The newspaper says the state-run National Iranian Oil Co. projects crude shipments to drop to about 1.5 million barrels a day next month, down from about 2.3 million barrels a day in June.

Why this is bad news for Trump: If true, Trump’s own policy could frustrate drivers during the heart of midterm elections, because lost Iranian oil supply would likely increase oil prices, which is the largest determinant of U.S. gasoline prices.

U.S. gasoline prices as of Wednesday are $2.84 on average, compared to $2.38 a year ago, according to AAA.

Trump has tried to thread a difficult needle on oil prices, pushing OPEC and its largest member and ally, Saudi Arabia, to boost crude production to offset expected losses as a result of his hardline approach to Iran.

The pressure campaign worked, with OPEC collectively agreeing last month to boost oil production by 1 million barrels per day, overturning a prior production cut agreement because prices had fallen too much.

The worst-case scenario: But that may not be enough to offset Iran’s lost oil, especially with production problems in other high output countries, such as Venezuela and Libya.

Iran is OPEC’s third largest producer, and has sold around 2.4 million barrels a day, or more than 2 percent of global supplies, since the lifting of sanctions in 2016.

“There is simply not enough readily available spare oil production capacity in the world to replace the loss of all Iranian barrels,” said Frank Verrastro, senior vice president of the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, outlining a worst-case scenario assuming all countries stop buying Iranian oil.

Verrastro provided Josh a draft of a commentary he is writing on the subject.

Counting the lost oil: Experts have predicted Iran’s oil exports could fall by as much as 1 million barrels per day by year’s end, as a result of the Trump administration’s vow to penalize countries that buy any amount of oil from Iran beginning Nov. 4. The U.S. is implementing the sanctions as punishment to force Iran back to the negotiating table after Trump rejected the Iran nuclear deal established by the Obama administration and allied countries.

But Tuesday’s report shows some of Iran’s oil fall may already be happening.

Slow down on freaking out: Joseph McMonigle, president of the Abraham Group, a consulting firm, and a former chief of staff of the Energy Department in the George W. Bush administration, argues that concerns about Trump’s policies are overblown, and says Iran’s falling oil production is consistent with expectations.

“The Iran policy is working as advertised,” McMonigle told Josh. “Many thought Iran oil exports would not be affected by U.S. sanctions alone without the European Union and other partners joining. We had forecasted about 1 million barrels per day cut in Iran exports due to U.S. sanctions getting reimposed, and we are on track to that number.”

“For the most part, Saudi Arabia and OPEC has responded to Trump’s request to moderate prices, and we are now coming out of high demand summer driving season, so gasoline prices should be at more normal levels before the election,” he added.

Welcome to Daily on Energy, compiled by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers John Siciliano (@JohnDSiciliano) and Josh Siegel (@SiegelScribe). Email [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list.  

CALIFORNIA MOVES CLOSER TO ENACTING 100 PERCENT RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET: California’s state assembly passed a bill Tuesday that would require the state to generate all of its energy from renewables by 2045.

Despite an intense lobbying campaign by utilities and the fossil fuel industry, the bill passed the assembly 43-32.

The bill must now go back to the state Senate, but it is expected to go to the desk of Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown by the end of the week.

Groups are already calling it a victory: “This is a massive victory for Californians who’ve been demanding a swift transition to clean energy in the state,” said May Boeve, executive director of the anti-fossil fuel group 350.org.

100 percent or bust: Boeve’s group has been calling for a transition to 100 percent renewable energy by midcentury, and an end to all coal mining and oil drilling, as the only way to address the threat posed by global warming. The group’s political arm is also actively endorsing candidates that support its aggressive renewable energy agenda going into the November midterm elections.

Wildfires are the reason: “With wildfires intensifying and temperatures skyrocketing, the impacts of climate change across the Golden State are impossible to ignore,” Boeve added. She noted a new climate assessment released Monday by the state that said wildfires and other natural phenomenon will only grow worse in the coming years.

Ahead of climate summit: The vote on the bill comes ahead of a major summit hosted by Gov. Brown in September, called the Global Climate Action Summit.

ENERGY GROUPS JOIN FORCES TO FIND BLOCKCHAIN OPPORTUNITIES: Energy groups are teaming up to address the opportunities they see in the emerging cryptocurrency/bitcoin industry.

Exploring the crypto possibilities: The Advanced Energy Economy and the Energy Blockchain Consortium signed a memorandum of understanding Wednesday “to explore the application of blockchain technology to the advanced energy industry.”

The energy demand is growing: Vast networks of computer hard drives and servers are used to generate bitcoins by solving algorithmic puzzles. It is a process that requires a tremendous amount of electricity to accomplish, which is where the energy industry comes in.  

Bigger than the Buckeye State: At a recent Senate hearing on blockchain, Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, noted that energy demand for cryptocurrency operations in the U.S. has exceeded that of his state.   

The two groups will develop reports and hold meetings to begin their venture into identifying the energy opportunities and inform regulators. The groups will hold their first call near the end of September.

Advisory role: Holding meetings and writing reports will be used as just two ways to gather and share information with industry stakeholders, regulators, and the public about ways that distributed digital ledger technology, used to generate bitcoins, could be used to facilitate the adoption and growth of advanced energy technologies.

Some advanced energy technologies would include things like batteries, which can store electricity generated by solar and wind to be used at times when demand is greatest.

CARPER SLAMS EPA OVER SUPREME COURT BID TO BURY CLIMATE RULES: Sen. Tom Carper is vowing to pass legislation in response to the Environmental Protection Agency’s refusal to defend its own program to phase out climate-harming refrigerants at the Supreme Court.

“This is yet another decision by the Trump EPA to abandon a commonsense solution that is a win-win for our environment and for American jobs,” said Carper, the top Delaware Democrat on the environment committee, in a statement released Tuesday night. EPA’s decision not to fight to uphold the phase out a “misguided decision,” he said.

Carper’s outrage was sparked by EPA’s response to an industry bid at the Supreme Court to save the program to phase out hydrofluorocarbons used in refrigeration and air conditioning.

EPA wants the Supreme Court to uphold a lower court’s decision rejecting the agency’s authority to phase out the HFCs, which are potent greenhouse gases that exacerbate global warming. Industry groups in favor of the phase-out want the high court to reverse the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals’ decision, retaining EPA’s authority to move ahead with the phase out.

Carper vowed to pass bipartisan legislation that he introduced with Louisiana Republican Sen. John Kennedy to phase out the refrigerants, called the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act.

PENTAGON CRITICIZES EPA SCIENCE PROPOSAL: The Pentagon has weighed in against a controversial EPA proposal that would block the agency from using scientific studies that do not make public the raw data used in research.

“While we agree that public access to information is very important, we do not believe that failure of the agency to obtain a publication’s underlying data from an author external to the agency should negate its use,” Patricia Underwood, a senior Pentagon official in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Energy, Installations, and Environment, wrote in recent public comments on the EPA proposal.

The deadline to receive input from the public on the proposed rule closed Aug. 16. The proposal garnered nearly a quarter of a million comments.

Whose science is it anyway? Critics say the proposed rule to combat what the Trump administration calls “secret science” would restrict the research the EPA can use in drafting environmental regulations, because it would have less research to work with and could cherry-pick information that fits its goals.

Former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, who introduced the proposal, said it would improve transparency and ensure science used in policymaking can be independently verified. EPA acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler has stood by the proposed rule.

Here’s the rub: But as the Pentagon official pointed out, some scientific research uses personal health information from individuals who participate knowing the details are not to be made public but used to inform policymaking.

Underwood, in her comments on the proposal, said it’s “improbable” EPA would always be able to obtain such data.

“This should not impede the use of otherwise high-quality studies,” she said.

BILL NELSON WARNS THAT FLORIDA FACES PLAGUE-LIKE CONDITIONS FROM TOXIC ALGAE BLOOMS: Democratic Florida Sen. Bill Nelson says his state is facing plague-like conditions from a harmful algal bloom that has the Sunshine State coated in a green slime.

Green hell: “Most people have seen the dead fish, the dead mammals, of which has been an additional plague on Florida this year,” Nelson said Tuesday at a Commerce Committee hearing on the toxic bloom crisis. “The harmful algae blooms have suddenly enveloped Florida to a green slime.”

Dozens of horror stories: Nelson submitted dozens of letters to the committee from Florida residents detailing the devastation that has closed beaches, has made Floridians physically ill, and is harming all segments of the fishing industry and anything ocean-related.

Florida phases harm on both coasts: “Florida is facing an environmental and economic harm, where toxic algae is coating – is coating – both coasts,” Nelson said. He added that lifeguards on the beaches are now tasked with preventing swimmers from entering the water, rather than their normal duty of protecting swimmers from drowning.

“You can stay on the beach, on the sand, but you can’t go into the water,” Nelson said.

TEXAS SUES EPA FOR DECLARING SAN ANTONIO’S POLLUTION LEVELS TOO HIGH: In a twist, some Republicans are upset at EPA for being too tough on the environment.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, and Attorney General Ken Paxton, both Republicans, sued the Trump administration in federal court Tuesday for ruling that parts of San Antonio have toxic ozone levels that are too high.

The EPA last month designated Bexar County in San Antonio as noncompliant with a stricter federal standard for smog-forming ozone set by the Obama administration to lower the level allowed in a particular area to 70 parts per billion from 75 parts per billion.

“If allowed to stand, the EPA’s designation would impose an unwarranted financial burden on the Texas economy with minimal, if any, public health benefit,” Paxton said in a press release upon filing the lawsuit in U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.

Ozone is dangerous: Ozone is a smog-causing gas that forms when chemical emissions from cars or coal plants, for example, are exposed to heat and sunlight. The Obama administration EPA said the tougher rules would prevent thousands of premature deaths. Studies have blamed San Antonio’s ozone levels for dozens of deaths annually.

Even Trump realized it: The Trump administration’s EPA had sought to delay the Obama rules, but backed down after 16 Democratic state attorneys general sued.

The Trump administration even recently said it will maintain and defend in court the Obama administration’s ozone rules, because it could not justify rejecting them.

Overall, in addition to Bexar County, the EPA identified 51 areas in 22 states and the District of Columbia that do not meet the 2015 ozone standards established under Obama.

RUNDOWN

Wall Street Journal In America’s hottest drilling spot, vast volumes of gas go up in smoke

New York Times Canada’s strong words on climate face a test in Trump’s NAFTA makeover

Washington Post Florida’s unusually long red tide is killing wildlife, tourism and businesses

Reuters U.S. energy companies fume over rejected steel tariff exemptions

Bloomberg Miami will be underwater soon. Its drinking water could go first